Brewster's last bid for the Axe? - Gophers at Badgers #120

The game culminating Axe Week is nearly here, and its been a pretty quiet week from Coach Brew and the Gophers. One can only assume he's working dilegently with his staff to find a way to finally beat Wisconsin.  He's come close each time he's coached against the Badgers, but come up short all 4 times.  Its been pointed out several times this week by various sources that Brew has managed to lead at halftime in every one of his games against the Badgers.  That's nice and all, and its clearly and improvement over some of the blowouts we had to endure under Mason against the Red Menance (particularly at Camp Randall).  But winning is what is important, and at this point in the Brewster era, moral victories or leading for 3 quarters count for nothing.  And much like last week, the cliched term 'must-win situation' comes to mind.  If Brewster really is coaching for his life, then this rivalry game is one of the few remaining tests Brewster has an opportunity to really impress the boosters and fanbase that things really are going to get better in 2011.  In nearly 4 years of play, we've had zero trophy game wins, and that might be the most damning piece of evidence against Brewster when compiling a case to remove him.  Throw all the other stuff out the window, his lack of wins against Wisconsin and Iowa has been unacceptable.  When your current signature win is a road win at Illinois or Northwestern, that's a problem.  This current, or next Minnesota Golden Gopher Football Head Coach MUST find a way to beat these two hated rivals on a more regular basis.  And what better time than right now to do it this Saturday.  It may not save Brewster's job, but it might help his resume a bit when he's looking for work come December...

The Badgers are holding their homecoming this week, and are coming off a disappointing loss to Michigan State, from a game several Badger fans I talked to felt they should have won.  They'll be hungry for a win and to get their B-10 season back on track. But with the marquee Ohio State night home game coming up next week, and a road trip to Iowa after that, this has some of the hallmarks of a 'trap game'.  Clearly the Badgers have bigger fish to fry, and this stretch will make or break their season.  Badger head coach Brett Bielema has stated that they are in the mindset of taking one game at a time, but this is just typical coach-speak.  The reality is that the Badgers will likely be looking to tune up their game against a lesser opponent this week, and save their best for the big dogs. 

Minnesota will need to play their best defensive game of the year to have a chance this Saturday.  It starts with stopping running backs John Clay (6.2 ypc), Montee Ball (4.4 ypc), and emerging frosh, James White (8.3 ypc).  No small task, given the O-line they run behind, which is mammoth and experienced. Cosgrove and Lee will likely load the box up with 8 and even 9 most of the game, and the Badgers know this.  This is going to leave our inexperienced secondary even more vulnerable, especially to play action.  And although the Badger receiving corps has underachieved based on expectations (as has QB Scott Tolzien), they will be wide open all game even if we can slow the run game down.  Tolzien will likely feast on playaction passes, unless Cosgrove dials up some perfectly timed blitz calls.  So I feel pretty negative about our defensive chances in slowing the Badger offense.  Like the game versus Northwestern, generating turnovers is the primary (and best) way the Gopher defense can equalize things. 

On offense, only giving the Badgers a dose of their own ball-control medicine will allow the Gophs to keep pace.  One of the 3 RBs needs to have a solid game.  Last week it was Eskeridge.  How about Bennett stepping up this week?  It's going to take solid O-line play for that. But Wisconsin's defense is not fearsome, and we should be able to put 20-25 points on them. And if 'Good Web' shows up for 4 quarters, and MarQueis is really over his plantar facitis, getting in the 30-35 points range is possible.  Lair seems to be improving weekly, and McKnight seems primed to have a breakout game.  So the pieces on offense are there to score enough points. As usual, execution is the key.  Will Brew and Horton dial up some trickeration this week in order to get some drives extended?  It seems likely, but those kind of plays only work so often.

On special teams - I have one great fear. Oreske's long hold and release on on punts.  NIU blocked on on us.  NU nearly did.  And Wisconsin would be foolish not to pin their ears back and come after the punter early and often.  Oreske's GOT to get a little quicker on his catch and release.  He holds that ball back there for what feels like an eternity, and I don't want to see this game go down like it did in 2005.



See, its not all coloring books at UW
-photo courtesy UW Library system

But can the Gophers go into Camp Randall and the polyester red haze and somehow beat the Badgers?  There's a chance, and more than just of the 'any given Sunday/Saturday' variety. This team has nothing to lose right now.  Losing to South Dakota probably sucked most of the confidence right out of the team. The loss to NIU took whatever was left of that confidence, put it in a headlock, and suffocated the life out of it.  And then when the Big Ten opener looked like a chance to build confidence anew, the final 2 minutes of that game put us right back to where we started.  Now there's absolutely nothing left to lose.  Pride is likely all this team has left, and while a majority of  Gophers fans are running on empty, I think the players still have plenty.  And even with Wisconsin heavily favored and laying 22 points for this game, pride might be enough. But probably not. All that said, I, while I believe the offense will have a respectable showing and keep the game from becoming a blowout, I simply don't have confidence that the defense has much hope in stopping the Wisconsin run game.

Prediction:  Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 23 

Badger Player of the Game: John Clay - 18 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs
Gopher Player of the Game: Da'Jon McKnight  7 catches 90 yards, 2 TD

Final note:  Coach Brew - you may be a dead man walking, but don't let that stop you from improving your resume here.  Get that AXE!  Goooooooooo GOPHERS!

Chance For A Fresh Start?: Northwestern @ Minnesota Game Preview

Is this logo looking tired and dated or what?

The Big Ten season starts this Saturday for the Gophs, and as Coach Brew has been keen to remind his players, we're 0-0 right now.  A chance for a fresh start of sorts.  And 'nowhere to go but up' is really the only attitude the team cab take at this point in the still young season.  Conference play is also conceivably the 'last chance' battery of tests for Brewster if he wants to maintain his position as Head Football Coach of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  And while I think many would agree that Coach Brew has been as hard-working, sincere, and dedicated as we could have asked of anyone, those traits won't be enough to help him keep his job if he can't grab at least 5 wins in the Big Ten this year.  And getting to 5 wins has to start with handing Northwestern a loss when they come into The Bank this weekend.

Northwestern has racked up a 4 and 0 record, and already won twice on the road (at Vanderbilt and Rice), but the schedule has been squishy soft overall.  You know that's the case when Wildcat head coach Pat Fitzgerald claims that Minnesota will be the best team they've faced so far this season.  I'd like to assume that Fitzgerald was just being polite and respectful, or that the statement was simply head coach hyperbole used to keep his squad from sleeping on the Gophers (the latter seeming much more likely to me).  Of course, Fitz also went on to say that Minnesota is "one of the best coached teams in the country", so who knows what the hell this guy has been drinking of late.  See, Brewster is not the only one who exaggerates for effect.

So exaggerations aside, can the Gophers hope to get back into the win column for a week?  Let's look at the total team stats over 4 game, FBT-style. Through 4 games, Northwestern has generated nearly identical statistics to the Gophers on offense.  Both squads average about 420 yards per game, 23 first downs, and a 3rd down conversion rate coming in at 47%.  Total distribution of rushing and passing yardages are nearly identical as well.  The only significant difference is that NU averages 30 points per game to our 26.5. On defense both NU and Minnesota have yielded approximately 1,500 yards of total offense, but Minnesota has not allowed twice as many points as Northwestern (31.0 to 15.5 ppg).  What's all that mean?  Not a whole lot if you ask me, as I'm loathe to draw many conclusions from a 4 game sample size (6 games is about where I think the team stats become more meaningful), especially without any common opponents.  But I suppose these comparisons are at least interesting in that they show that despite nearly identical yardages gained and yielded by both teams, Northwestern has managed to capitalize on the scoreboard far more than the Gophers.

Everything on offense for the Wildcats goes through QB Dan Persa.  A dark horse (in my opinion) for Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Persa runs the spread extremely efficiently, completing over 80% of his passes (not a typo- yes, 80%).  And like most NU quarterbacks of late, he can run when necessary too (leads the team rushing). Persa's primary target has been junior WE Jeremy Ebert (the only Big 10 receiver who's put up more yards than MarQueis Gray).  And add Sidney Stewart, Demetrius Fields, and Drake Dunsmore to the list of Persa targets with at least double-digit catches.  So the passing game is obviously a concern.  How about running the ball?  Well, if there was a Big 10 team that we should be able to stop the run against, its Northwestern.  Of the Wildcats 3 primary running backs, Arby Fields, Mike Trumpy, and Jacob Schmidt, none of them averages over 4 yards per carry.  The sophomore Fields, the starter up until this week, had gained a miserable 160 yards on 56 carries (2.9 ypc).  Last week Schmidt and Trumpy showed Coach Fitz enough for him to demote Fields, and name them as co-starters.  Sidenote: Has there ever been a group of running backs with collectively worse names than this? At any rate, Northwestern has averaged over 36 carries a game, so their poor rushing numbers aren't from a lack of attempts. Will Schmidt anc Trumpy become this week's Chad Spann or Allen Bradford?  Or will Minnesota get things tightened up, get back to fundamentals, and stuff these bottom tier running backs in the back to the stat sheet where they belong?

Willie Wildcat displays horrible ball security

The Wildcat defense has generated plenty of turnovers, and yielded few (+7 in turnover margin).  Seniors Corbin Bryant (DT) and Quentin Davie (LB) have been the leaders on defense for the 'Cats, and are active along the line of scrimmage, acting as the tip of the spearhead to generate turnovers and plays for loss.  It's specifically these turnovers generated that have made the Wildcat scoring defense so good to date.  The Gophers have done a decent job protecting the ball, and will have to continue to do so if they want to have a chance to win.

Minnesota's own offensive gameplan will likely remain unchanged - run, run, and run until we're down by multiple scores and then que Weber to start slinging the ball to Gray and McKnight.  The Gopher offensive line played a dismal run blocking game last week, and if this continues, Weber will again bear the brunt of generating positive yardage and scoring opportunities.  And that means converting third downs more efficiently and throwing the ball more accurately (nothing new here on Weber's 'need to improve' checklist).  Bryant Allen looked pretty decent out of the slot last week filling in for Stoudemire, and perhaps he can be the reliable 3rd WR the Gophers have needed for some time.  And speaking of Stoudemire, looks like he'll be lining up on the opposite side of the ball from here on out.  He's been reinstated, as a DB, and from the sounds of things from Brewster he could even see some gametime, should the appropriate man coverage situation arise (I'm guessing a 5-WR set).

Predictions?  Well, the Gophers should have plenty of motivation get out of the Big Ten opener on a high note. It's also Homecoming, and a win here could actually generate some momentum before heading into Camp Randall.  That said, I've very skeptical that the Gophers run game can get going.  If they can rip off a few big runs, and move the chains with a decent average per carry, then this game is very winnable.  If they run the ball like they did against NIU, then they can't win.  I believe both teams will struggle to run the ball, and a Weber-Persa shootout favors Northwestern.  That formula means the Gophers will end up 0-1 in conference to start Big Ten play.

Prediction: Northwestern 34, Minnesota 27


Gopher Player of the Game: Adam Weber - 20-29, 290 yards and 3 TDs
Wildcat Player of the Game: Dan Persa - 27-36, 260 yards and 2 TDs, 10 carries for 45 yards and 1 TD

Desperation Setting In? Here Come the Huskies: NIU @ Minnesota Preview

If this week's game preview post title seems a bit cocksure, don't misinterpret.  Desperation is indeed looming, and could set in fully if Northern Illinois beats us at home.  And the NIU Huskies are a pretty decent MAC team with a pretty decent quarterback (more on him later) that could easily send this season into a nightmarish death spiral. A decent that might not even be slowed by the winning of a few 'trinket games' later in the year.

And as if this game wasn't enough for the team to focus on, now there seems to be an undercurrent of dissent among at least one player.  WR/KR Troy Stoudemire made it public by his recent Facebook declaration that he is no longer a Gopher.  One assumes this was caused by Brewster's indefinite suspension of Troy for 'conduct detrimental to the team'.  The team has said nothing officially about Stoudemire's departure, and apparently he's not yet spoken to the staff formally about leaving 'the U'.  Maybe he's just blowing off steam over the internets?  If so, its too bad he missed the halftime public service announcement at last week's USC game about 'going to far' with social networking.

Whatever the case, the loss of our #3 receiver and top kick return man shouldn't be our primary concern going into this game.  That honor goes to Husky QB, Chandler Harnish.  Harnish, who wasn't the Week 1 game starter under center, lost the QB battle to DeMarcus Grady in training camp.  But after a rough 3 INT opener at Iowa State and a wacky low-angle throwing motion, Harnish was given the start in Week 2 vs. UND.  No stranger to starting, Harnish has led the Huskies at QB in 18 games over the last 2 years. And in just two games this seasonb(UND and Illinois), the junior QB rolled up some impressive numbers -- 350 yards in the air and nearly 300 on the ground.  Uh oh - dual threat QB. Dante Warren, but with more experience, comes to mind.  And that smells like trouble.  I presume this time around we'll actually gameplan for a QB with legs.  Perhaps worst of all, he sort of has that bad-ass, focused, football-is-my-life, Eric Decker-esque look to him.  Great.

Chandler Harnish means business

Harnish is not alone in the backfield either, as he can turn around and hand the ball to Chad Spann, a 5'9" 198 lb senior halfback.  Spann has averaged nearly 80 yards per game, and already broke a 79 TD this season.  Statistically, none of the Husky receivers stand out - none have even 100 yards receiving thru 3 games, so Harnish is doing a nice job spreading the ball around, but his wheels are the bigger concern.  Its clear then, that stopping Harnish and Spann will be paramount if a Gopher win is to occur.  To many 6-7 yard runs on 1st or 2nd down will put the Gopher defense in a bad spot, and allow the Huskies to keep the D off-balance, keeping them guessing if Harnish will be throwing or running in short down and distances.  Watching some of Harnish's highlights from the Illini game, they have some designed QB runs that look very effective, and some short delayed passing routes over the middle that will keep our linebackers busy.

The NIU defense has allowed fewer yards than their offense has gained, but that hasn't translated into wins for them.  They have been gashed for 175 yards per game on the ground, and look like they could be a team susceptible to the Gopher's run game.  Illinois racked up over 300 yards on the ground last week, so that bodes well for us and controlling the clock.

I have little faith that our defense will be disciplined enough to stop Harnish all game, and so I think the key this week lies in keeping him off the field by dominating the time of possession.  If the offensive line can play well and Bennett is back and healthy, this is the most likely route to victory for the Gophers.

This Saturday's game is an opportunity for the Gophers to get up off the ground, dust off our pants, wipe the blood of our nose, and play like a real Big Ten team.  That means putting down the Huskies with the same type of ball-control offense we saw versus the Blue Raiders in the opener.  Make no mistake though, NIU was a preseason pick to win the MAC West division and are eager to beat a big conference opponent before moving on to their conference schedule.  They also have a recently infirmed coach to play for and rally around.  Coach Jerry Kill was recently hospitalized for dehydration, and also had an undisclosed surgery earlier in the season, though he will be on the sidelines of TCF Bank Stadium this Saturday night.

Originally, I had called for this game to be the let-down loss on the schedule, after stealing a win from USC.  Obviously, that scenario didn't play out.  But based on the Chandler Harnish film I watched this week, I am still VERY skeptical that we can win this game.  Harnish looks to be a dangerous player, the kind that our defense may not be experienced enough to stop.  If the RB Spann was the focal point of the NIU offense, I'd be much more confident.  Unfortunately he is not, and Harnish will likely shred us as he can pass on the run, or just tuck it and take off with deceptive speed and good vision.  Ball control with Bennett, Eskeridge, and Kirkwood is needed to limit Harnish's touches. Can the Gophs control the clock for 45 minutes out of 60 again to gain the victory? I fear not.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Northern Illinois 31

Gopher Player of the Game: Duane Bennett - 24 carries for 145 yards and 2 TDs

Huskie Player of the Game: Chandler Harnish - 15 carries for 110 yards rushing and 2 TDs, 14-20 for 120 yards and 2 TDs

A Coyote in the Coffers - SoDak in The Bank: South Dakota @ Minnesota Preview

Here we go again with another FCS team.  Fans of most BCS conference teams don't sweat games like these, but the Gopher's recent history with teams from this subdivision hasn't given us much to be overly confident about.  Our last several efforts against I-AA teams have been pretty dismal.  In fact, you have to go all the way back to middle of the Grinnin' Glen Mason Era to find the last game we utterly dominated a non-FBS team (Southwest Texas State, 42-0 in 2002).  Ugh.

Luckily, last week's win over MTSU on the road has me feeling pretty good about the new look Gopher offense, and what we can accomplish against lesser foes.  Sucking up 75% of the clock by grinding out the run has that effect on me.  Not everybody was all that impressed with our opening road win though (thanks for drawing conclusions directly from a box score, Tom Dienhart). That's fine though, we're not looking for approval from the nation media right now, just another win.

So now South Dakota rolls into town this weekend, with nothing to loose and everything to gain.  They got buried 38-7 last weekend on the road at Central Florida, in a game where they only gained 220 yards in total offense, and allowed nearly 500.  By all accounts, UCF did what they wanted with the ball, and controlled all facets of the game.  Statistical bright spots for the 'Yotes in the opener were junior running back, Chris Ganious - who rushed for 89 yards and the lone TD on a 4.5 ypc average, and former Gopher (transfer) junior SS Shane Potter's career high 16 tackles.

Offensively, the Coyotes start an inexperienced QB behind a bigger, physical O-line.  Quarterback Dante Warren, who got his first career start last week, was secure with the ball against UCF, and did not turn the ball over. Chris Ganious, a smallish back at 5'8" and 185 lbs, is expected to be the primary ball carrier to have his name called on the PA this Saturday.  Ganious has had a productive collegiate career, rushing over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs in his first two seasons.  This is the guy the Gophers must stop, first and foremost.  It's not clear how much the USD coaching staff wants Warren to throw yet, (only 19 attempts in a blowout loss), so I'd anticipate Ganious will be getting the ball early and often, to set up the play-action pass.

On defense, the Coyote's don't have a whole lot of film to look at from the Gophers besides run plays (and more run plays - 67 to be exact).   The gameplan for South Dakota's D is likely to be very simple. Stop the runaway train that is time-of-possession - load up the box, and stop the run.  The aforementioned Shane Potter will integral to that game plan, coming up from the strong safety position as the 8th man.

Charlie Coyote - Courtesy www.usd.edu

So can South Dakota jump back off the mat, wipe their bloodied nose, and hold their own against the Gophs?  The answer is a resounding, 'no', provided the execution in the run game we saw against MTSU is there.  I have to believe that Brew and Horton have no interest in generating any more film of the playbook for USC than they have to.  Ditto for Cosgrove and Lee on defense.  So I expect to see a pretty vanilla game plan, very similar to last week's.  Pound the rock and wear down the defense.  Horton continues to assert that they won't go away from the run too quickly if its not successful, and until I see otherwise, I believe him.  So more heavy doses of vitamin B(ennett), E(skeridge), and K(irkwood). And if the lead gets built up, I'd expect Kirkwood to get the bulk of the carries down the stretch to keep Bennett's legs fresh for USC.  And perhaps with that presumptuous lead, we'll also see MarQueis under center for some work later in the game (crossing fingers).

As far as the D goes, look for tackling and play diagnosis to be improved, as I'd guess these were items focused on in practice all week. I'd like to see somebody in our front 4 get a sack this week, but if not, I'm confident I'll see multiple TFLs on runs from them.  Presuming the secondary is without Royston again this week, I'm going to watch Lewis and Manuel closely to see if there is improvement there.  Overall, our team speed on defense should be enough to overwhelm the Ganious et al, provided they remain under control and stay disciplined.

On the starting lineup front, it sounds as if the LT job will be Ed-O's (Ed Olson Jr.) again this week, as Alford is still suspended for violating team rules.  And it appears that Theret will remain suspended as well.  Royston's status is still up in the air as to whether he's healthy enough to take the field yet.  Jon Hoese, who lost his father this earlier this week is also a question mark. Stay tuned, I imagine we'll hear on the status of these guys soon.

So how does this all play out? Well, KFAN's resident Gopher basher, Dan Barreiro suggested that a win by less that 4 TDs would be an 'embarrassment'.  So if my prediction holds true (27 point win, see below) - expect the usual ill-informed jokes and bits we usually hear from The Fan.  At the beginning of this week, I was feeling a little nervous about this game, given our recent history with FCS teams.  Nothing lasts forever though, and my attitude started to swing after listening to Brew's post-practice Q&A (thanks MV), and researching USD's game against Central Florida.   I think starting the season out on the road had this team focused from the get-go, and the low expectations of the national media are a continuous motivator going forward.  Gophs roll on to 2 and 0.  And then let USC prep-week begin.

Prediction: Minnesota 41, South Dakota 14

Gopher Player of the Game: Donnell Kirkwood - 18 carries for 130 yards and 2 TDs

Coyote Player of the Game: Chris Ganious - 25 carries for 105 yards and 1 TD

Sidenote:  According to Gophersports.com , a number of improvements in stadium operations are going to be implemented this year (think express entrances, new concessions, etc).  Look for a quick review of how things are at The Bank in year 2 embedded within the next "What We Learned" post.

Starting out in the Swelter: Gophers @ Middle Tennesse State Preview

Gotta say it right off the bat.  I've been a big fan of the Middle Tennessee State logo and mascot for several years now.  How would I even know or care it existed you might ask?  A fair question.  And those who know me well, know that Gopher Bandanna Guy is a major sucker for all things blue and silver.  It's a superior color combo in any setting, and frankly had there been a Big Ten school that sported these colors I might be blogging for them right now, rather than about the beloved Gophers.  Then add the lightning breath onto the Pegasus, and you've made the a top ten collegiate logo in my humble opinion. I mean look at that horse - its ready to stomp your ass and then fly off into a thunderstorm.

But enough with the flattery of our first opponent of the 2010 Golden Gopher football season.  Our beloved Maroon and Gold are headed south to Murfreesboro, TN for a Thursday night tilt (televised on ESPN U, 7:30PM EST) to kick off the season.  Anecdotally speaking, this game perhaps more than any other on the 2010 schedule seems to be the one that Gopher fans (the casual and diehard) are the most split on.  The naysayers and Brewster Bashers say this game is the harbinger of the end for the Tim Brewster era - where we'll go into a hostile southern football stadium, in stifling heat that we can't handle, and allow a Sunbelt Conference Team give our Big Ten team a dose of comeuppance.  Then there are the overtly positive fans who are already claiming victory, in the name of the quality of Big Ten football.  Have the NDSU's and Appalachian State's of the world taught us nothing?

But of course, those teams (and several others of recent upset memory) have reminded most of us college football fans that small conference and even inferior division teams can occasionally rise up and knock off a BCS conference opponent, their own conference strength be damned.  The Blue Raiders dominated most of their opponents in the Sun Belt last year (7-1 in conference), were beat down by Clemson and Mississippi State, and beat a weak Memphis team at home and an equally hapless Maryland on the road. The Gophers and MTSU had no common opponents in 2009, but Maryland (who MTSU beat on a last second field goal) was removed by 1 degree of separation (Maryland was plowed under by Cal, 52-13 in their 2009 opener).  What's that all mean?  Most likely nothing.  The Gopher team that hung with Cal for 3 quarters is not this year's 2010 team, nor is the Blue Raider squad, who had dynamic QB Dwight Dasher racking up yardage on the 'Terps.

One year later, and Dwight Dasher is still the QB for MTSU.  Problem is he's been suspended by the NCAA, apparently for a $1,500 loan he got to play poker with.  There's more details to this story, but what matters is that MTSU is without their senior dual-threat QB.  That fact alone cause Vegas to move the line on this game substantially, pushing the Gophs from road dog to slight road favorites.  Obviously the oddsmakers think highly of Dasher.

At this point it appears highly likely that this suspension will stand, and the Gopher defense will not have to face the Sun Belt Conference's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year.  Good for us.  Bad for the Murfreesboro Faithful.  But there are 20 other Blue Raiders too line up against and a JUCO backup QB in Logan Kilgore.  Apparently the sophomore Kilgore is getting the start over his upperclassman teammate Jeff Murphy, because he's gotten in more practice this preseason.

FBT (Fringe Bowl Team) did a nice initial eval of MTSU back in July, when Dasher was still expected to be the starting QB, and (I believe) accurately portrayed the Blue Raiders as a Northwestern-lite, as a team that runs the spread, and relies on their QB grabbing yards when the pocket breaks down.  With Kilgore at the helm its uncertain what we'll get, but we all know a quarterback doesn't need to be particularly fast to stack up yards on our defense historically, just somewhat elusive (Mike Kafka anybody?).  The buzz from some Blue Raiders fans is that he has been quite accurate in practices, but he's not the runner Dasher is.

So who steps up for MTSU on offense, if Kilgore is ineffective?  An experienced, smallish offensive line (both OTs on the depth chart listed at less than 275 lbs) and 3 talented running backs - Phillip Tanner, Ben Cunningham, and D.D. Kyles who are expected to share carries this season.  The matchup I'm most interested in watching this Thursday is going to be our less experienced front four matchup with this O-line.  Dominate up front and make Kilgore uncomfortable and we win this game.  I'm also curious to see if Cosgrove will keep it simple for this first game, or if he'll pick up where he left off last year, incorporating blitzes from all over the field.

When the Gophers have the ball, the MTSU defense is small, quick, and senior-laden.  For Weber and Co. to put the ball into the endzone, its going to take some consistent sustained drives, as I don't think we'll see a lot of big plays and broken coverage handed to us from this experienced defense.  We've heard all spring and summer camp that the Gophs are rededicated to running the ball.  And although, I believe they are under Horton, it may be frustrating to watch several drives grind to a halt early in the game because we're establishing the run, and predictably rushing the ball on 1st and 2nd downs. Patience is key - something Fisch did not have last year with the run, and I think Horton will display.

Ok - enough babbling and regurgitating what others have already written. Like last year, I'll provide my weekly prediction and players of the game for both teams.  This MTSU road game feels awfully like the Syracuse game last season to me (but without climate control and the Eric Decker and Mike Williams NFL-preview show).  Very winnable for Minnesota, but it will be nail-bitingly close, thanks to some stalled drives due to our commitment to run early, and some 2nd half brain cramps on defense.  Weber start out his senior season well, and look real sharp on some drives and make us feel good about having him under center for one more year.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Middle Tennessee State 20

Gopher Player of the Game: Adam Weber - 14 for 20 for 195 yards and 2 TDs

Blue Raider Player of the Game: Phillip Tanner - 16 carries for 95 yards and 1 TD