A Coyote in the Coffers - SoDak in The Bank: South Dakota @ Minnesota Preview

Here we go again with another FCS team.  Fans of most BCS conference teams don't sweat games like these, but the Gopher's recent history with teams from this subdivision hasn't given us much to be overly confident about.  Our last several efforts against I-AA teams have been pretty dismal.  In fact, you have to go all the way back to middle of the Grinnin' Glen Mason Era to find the last game we utterly dominated a non-FBS team (Southwest Texas State, 42-0 in 2002).  Ugh.

Luckily, last week's win over MTSU on the road has me feeling pretty good about the new look Gopher offense, and what we can accomplish against lesser foes.  Sucking up 75% of the clock by grinding out the run has that effect on me.  Not everybody was all that impressed with our opening road win though (thanks for drawing conclusions directly from a box score, Tom Dienhart). That's fine though, we're not looking for approval from the nation media right now, just another win.

So now South Dakota rolls into town this weekend, with nothing to loose and everything to gain.  They got buried 38-7 last weekend on the road at Central Florida, in a game where they only gained 220 yards in total offense, and allowed nearly 500.  By all accounts, UCF did what they wanted with the ball, and controlled all facets of the game.  Statistical bright spots for the 'Yotes in the opener were junior running back, Chris Ganious - who rushed for 89 yards and the lone TD on a 4.5 ypc average, and former Gopher (transfer) junior SS Shane Potter's career high 16 tackles.

Offensively, the Coyotes start an inexperienced QB behind a bigger, physical O-line.  Quarterback Dante Warren, who got his first career start last week, was secure with the ball against UCF, and did not turn the ball over. Chris Ganious, a smallish back at 5'8" and 185 lbs, is expected to be the primary ball carrier to have his name called on the PA this Saturday.  Ganious has had a productive collegiate career, rushing over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs in his first two seasons.  This is the guy the Gophers must stop, first and foremost.  It's not clear how much the USD coaching staff wants Warren to throw yet, (only 19 attempts in a blowout loss), so I'd anticipate Ganious will be getting the ball early and often, to set up the play-action pass.

On defense, the Coyote's don't have a whole lot of film to look at from the Gophers besides run plays (and more run plays - 67 to be exact).   The gameplan for South Dakota's D is likely to be very simple. Stop the runaway train that is time-of-possession - load up the box, and stop the run.  The aforementioned Shane Potter will integral to that game plan, coming up from the strong safety position as the 8th man.

Charlie Coyote - Courtesy www.usd.edu

So can South Dakota jump back off the mat, wipe their bloodied nose, and hold their own against the Gophs?  The answer is a resounding, 'no', provided the execution in the run game we saw against MTSU is there.  I have to believe that Brew and Horton have no interest in generating any more film of the playbook for USC than they have to.  Ditto for Cosgrove and Lee on defense.  So I expect to see a pretty vanilla game plan, very similar to last week's.  Pound the rock and wear down the defense.  Horton continues to assert that they won't go away from the run too quickly if its not successful, and until I see otherwise, I believe him.  So more heavy doses of vitamin B(ennett), E(skeridge), and K(irkwood). And if the lead gets built up, I'd expect Kirkwood to get the bulk of the carries down the stretch to keep Bennett's legs fresh for USC.  And perhaps with that presumptuous lead, we'll also see MarQueis under center for some work later in the game (crossing fingers).

As far as the D goes, look for tackling and play diagnosis to be improved, as I'd guess these were items focused on in practice all week. I'd like to see somebody in our front 4 get a sack this week, but if not, I'm confident I'll see multiple TFLs on runs from them.  Presuming the secondary is without Royston again this week, I'm going to watch Lewis and Manuel closely to see if there is improvement there.  Overall, our team speed on defense should be enough to overwhelm the Ganious et al, provided they remain under control and stay disciplined.

On the starting lineup front, it sounds as if the LT job will be Ed-O's (Ed Olson Jr.) again this week, as Alford is still suspended for violating team rules.  And it appears that Theret will remain suspended as well.  Royston's status is still up in the air as to whether he's healthy enough to take the field yet.  Jon Hoese, who lost his father this earlier this week is also a question mark. Stay tuned, I imagine we'll hear on the status of these guys soon.

So how does this all play out? Well, KFAN's resident Gopher basher, Dan Barreiro suggested that a win by less that 4 TDs would be an 'embarrassment'.  So if my prediction holds true (27 point win, see below) - expect the usual ill-informed jokes and bits we usually hear from The Fan.  At the beginning of this week, I was feeling a little nervous about this game, given our recent history with FCS teams.  Nothing lasts forever though, and my attitude started to swing after listening to Brew's post-practice Q&A (thanks MV), and researching USD's game against Central Florida.   I think starting the season out on the road had this team focused from the get-go, and the low expectations of the national media are a continuous motivator going forward.  Gophs roll on to 2 and 0.  And then let USC prep-week begin.

Prediction: Minnesota 41, South Dakota 14

Gopher Player of the Game: Donnell Kirkwood - 18 carries for 130 yards and 2 TDs

Coyote Player of the Game: Chris Ganious - 25 carries for 105 yards and 1 TD

Sidenote:  According to Gophersports.com , a number of improvements in stadium operations are going to be implemented this year (think express entrances, new concessions, etc).  Look for a quick review of how things are at The Bank in year 2 embedded within the next "What We Learned" post.