Chance For A Fresh Start?: Northwestern @ Minnesota Game Preview

Is this logo looking tired and dated or what?

The Big Ten season starts this Saturday for the Gophs, and as Coach Brew has been keen to remind his players, we're 0-0 right now.  A chance for a fresh start of sorts.  And 'nowhere to go but up' is really the only attitude the team cab take at this point in the still young season.  Conference play is also conceivably the 'last chance' battery of tests for Brewster if he wants to maintain his position as Head Football Coach of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  And while I think many would agree that Coach Brew has been as hard-working, sincere, and dedicated as we could have asked of anyone, those traits won't be enough to help him keep his job if he can't grab at least 5 wins in the Big Ten this year.  And getting to 5 wins has to start with handing Northwestern a loss when they come into The Bank this weekend.

Northwestern has racked up a 4 and 0 record, and already won twice on the road (at Vanderbilt and Rice), but the schedule has been squishy soft overall.  You know that's the case when Wildcat head coach Pat Fitzgerald claims that Minnesota will be the best team they've faced so far this season.  I'd like to assume that Fitzgerald was just being polite and respectful, or that the statement was simply head coach hyperbole used to keep his squad from sleeping on the Gophers (the latter seeming much more likely to me).  Of course, Fitz also went on to say that Minnesota is "one of the best coached teams in the country", so who knows what the hell this guy has been drinking of late.  See, Brewster is not the only one who exaggerates for effect.

So exaggerations aside, can the Gophers hope to get back into the win column for a week?  Let's look at the total team stats over 4 game, FBT-style. Through 4 games, Northwestern has generated nearly identical statistics to the Gophers on offense.  Both squads average about 420 yards per game, 23 first downs, and a 3rd down conversion rate coming in at 47%.  Total distribution of rushing and passing yardages are nearly identical as well.  The only significant difference is that NU averages 30 points per game to our 26.5. On defense both NU and Minnesota have yielded approximately 1,500 yards of total offense, but Minnesota has not allowed twice as many points as Northwestern (31.0 to 15.5 ppg).  What's all that mean?  Not a whole lot if you ask me, as I'm loathe to draw many conclusions from a 4 game sample size (6 games is about where I think the team stats become more meaningful), especially without any common opponents.  But I suppose these comparisons are at least interesting in that they show that despite nearly identical yardages gained and yielded by both teams, Northwestern has managed to capitalize on the scoreboard far more than the Gophers.

Everything on offense for the Wildcats goes through QB Dan Persa.  A dark horse (in my opinion) for Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Persa runs the spread extremely efficiently, completing over 80% of his passes (not a typo- yes, 80%).  And like most NU quarterbacks of late, he can run when necessary too (leads the team rushing). Persa's primary target has been junior WE Jeremy Ebert (the only Big 10 receiver who's put up more yards than MarQueis Gray).  And add Sidney Stewart, Demetrius Fields, and Drake Dunsmore to the list of Persa targets with at least double-digit catches.  So the passing game is obviously a concern.  How about running the ball?  Well, if there was a Big 10 team that we should be able to stop the run against, its Northwestern.  Of the Wildcats 3 primary running backs, Arby Fields, Mike Trumpy, and Jacob Schmidt, none of them averages over 4 yards per carry.  The sophomore Fields, the starter up until this week, had gained a miserable 160 yards on 56 carries (2.9 ypc).  Last week Schmidt and Trumpy showed Coach Fitz enough for him to demote Fields, and name them as co-starters.  Sidenote: Has there ever been a group of running backs with collectively worse names than this? At any rate, Northwestern has averaged over 36 carries a game, so their poor rushing numbers aren't from a lack of attempts. Will Schmidt anc Trumpy become this week's Chad Spann or Allen Bradford?  Or will Minnesota get things tightened up, get back to fundamentals, and stuff these bottom tier running backs in the back to the stat sheet where they belong?

Willie Wildcat displays horrible ball security

The Wildcat defense has generated plenty of turnovers, and yielded few (+7 in turnover margin).  Seniors Corbin Bryant (DT) and Quentin Davie (LB) have been the leaders on defense for the 'Cats, and are active along the line of scrimmage, acting as the tip of the spearhead to generate turnovers and plays for loss.  It's specifically these turnovers generated that have made the Wildcat scoring defense so good to date.  The Gophers have done a decent job protecting the ball, and will have to continue to do so if they want to have a chance to win.

Minnesota's own offensive gameplan will likely remain unchanged - run, run, and run until we're down by multiple scores and then que Weber to start slinging the ball to Gray and McKnight.  The Gopher offensive line played a dismal run blocking game last week, and if this continues, Weber will again bear the brunt of generating positive yardage and scoring opportunities.  And that means converting third downs more efficiently and throwing the ball more accurately (nothing new here on Weber's 'need to improve' checklist).  Bryant Allen looked pretty decent out of the slot last week filling in for Stoudemire, and perhaps he can be the reliable 3rd WR the Gophers have needed for some time.  And speaking of Stoudemire, looks like he'll be lining up on the opposite side of the ball from here on out.  He's been reinstated, as a DB, and from the sounds of things from Brewster he could even see some gametime, should the appropriate man coverage situation arise (I'm guessing a 5-WR set).

Predictions?  Well, the Gophers should have plenty of motivation get out of the Big Ten opener on a high note. It's also Homecoming, and a win here could actually generate some momentum before heading into Camp Randall.  That said, I've very skeptical that the Gophers run game can get going.  If they can rip off a few big runs, and move the chains with a decent average per carry, then this game is very winnable.  If they run the ball like they did against NIU, then they can't win.  I believe both teams will struggle to run the ball, and a Weber-Persa shootout favors Northwestern.  That formula means the Gophers will end up 0-1 in conference to start Big Ten play.

Prediction: Northwestern 34, Minnesota 27


Gopher Player of the Game: Adam Weber - 20-29, 290 yards and 3 TDs
Wildcat Player of the Game: Dan Persa - 27-36, 260 yards and 2 TDs, 10 carries for 45 yards and 1 TD