But enough with the flattery of our first opponent of the 2010 Golden Gopher football season. Our beloved Maroon and Gold are headed south to Murfreesboro, TN for a Thursday night tilt (televised on ESPN U, 7:30PM EST) to kick off the season. Anecdotally speaking, this game perhaps more than any other on the 2010 schedule seems to be the one that Gopher fans (the casual and diehard) are the most split on. The naysayers and Brewster Bashers say this game is the harbinger of the end for the Tim Brewster era - where we'll go into a hostile southern football stadium, in stifling heat that we can't handle, and allow a Sunbelt Conference Team give our Big Ten team a dose of comeuppance. Then there are the overtly positive fans who are already claiming victory, in the name of the quality of Big Ten football. Have the NDSU's and Appalachian State's of the world taught us nothing? But of course, those teams (and several others of recent upset memory) have reminded most of us college football fans that small conference and even inferior division teams can occasionally rise up and knock off a BCS conference opponent, their own conference strength be damned. The Blue Raiders dominated most of their opponents in the Sun Belt last year (7-1 in conference), were beat down by Clemson and Mississippi State, and beat a weak Memphis team at home and an equally hapless Maryland on the road. The Gophers and MTSU had no common opponents in 2009, but Maryland (who MTSU beat on a last second field goal) was removed by 1 degree of separation (Maryland was plowed under by Cal, 52-13 in their 2009 opener). What's that all mean? Most likely nothing. The Gopher team that hung with Cal for 3 quarters is not this year's 2010 team, nor is the Blue Raider squad, who had dynamic QB Dwight Dasher racking up yardage on the 'Terps.
One year later, and Dwight Dasher is still the QB for MTSU. Problem is he's been suspended by the NCAA, apparently for a $1,500 loan he got to play poker with. There's more details to this story, but what matters is that MTSU is without their senior dual-threat QB. That fact alone cause Vegas to move the line on this game substantially, pushing the Gophs from road dog to slight road favorites. Obviously the oddsmakers think highly of Dasher.
At this point it appears highly likely that this suspension will stand, and the Gopher defense will not have to face the Sun Belt Conference's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Good for us. Bad for the Murfreesboro Faithful. But there are 20 other Blue Raiders too line up against and a JUCO backup QB in Logan Kilgore. Apparently the sophomore Kilgore is getting the start over his upperclassman teammate Jeff Murphy, because he's gotten in more practice this preseason.
FBT (Fringe Bowl Team) did a nice initial eval of MTSU back in July, when Dasher was still expected to be the starting QB, and (I believe) accurately portrayed the Blue Raiders as a Northwestern-lite, as a team that runs the spread, and relies on their QB grabbing yards when the pocket breaks down. With Kilgore at the helm its uncertain what we'll get, but we all know a quarterback doesn't need to be particularly fast to stack up yards on our defense historically, just somewhat elusive (Mike Kafka anybody?). The buzz from some Blue Raiders fans is that he has been quite accurate in practices, but he's not the runner Dasher is.
So who steps up for MTSU on offense, if Kilgore is ineffective? An experienced, smallish offensive line (both OTs on the depth chart listed at less than 275 lbs) and 3 talented running backs - Phillip Tanner, Ben Cunningham, and D.D. Kyles who are expected to share carries this season. The matchup I'm most interested in watching this Thursday is going to be our less experienced front four matchup with this O-line. Dominate up front and make Kilgore uncomfortable and we win this game. I'm also curious to see if Cosgrove will keep it simple for this first game, or if he'll pick up where he left off last year, incorporating blitzes from all over the field.
When the Gophers have the ball, the MTSU defense is small, quick, and senior-laden. For Weber and Co. to put the ball into the endzone, its going to take some consistent sustained drives, as I don't think we'll see a lot of big plays and broken coverage handed to us from this experienced defense. We've heard all spring and summer camp that the Gophs are rededicated to running the ball. And although, I believe they are under Horton, it may be frustrating to watch several drives grind to a halt early in the game because we're establishing the run, and predictably rushing the ball on 1st and 2nd downs. Patience is key - something Fisch did not have last year with the run, and I think Horton will display.
Ok - enough babbling and regurgitating what others have already written. Like last year, I'll provide my weekly prediction and players of the game for both teams. This MTSU road game feels awfully like the Syracuse game last season to me (but without climate control and the Eric Decker and Mike Williams NFL-preview show). Very winnable for Minnesota, but it will be nail-bitingly close, thanks to some stalled drives due to our commitment to run early, and some 2nd half brain cramps on defense. Weber start out his senior season well, and look real sharp on some drives and make us feel good about having him under center for one more year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Middle Tennessee State 20
Gopher Player of the Game: Adam Weber - 14 for 20 for 195 yards and 2 TDs
Blue Raider Player of the Game: Phillip Tanner - 16 carries for 95 yards and 1 TD
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