South Dakota @ Minnesota - What we learned (and where it went wrong).

o

Gary Tinsely fills the 'A-Gap', all other defenders? Occupado. - photo by JT 

Why do the football gods hate me so much?  Why?  After torturing me on another beautiful Saturday at The Bank, 24 hours later, they decide to take away an improbable opening road win from my Honolulu Blue and Silver by robbing Calvin Johnson of a game-winning TD catch.  Oh, and the cherry on top was the loss of Matthew Stafford for 4-6 weeks.  I don't know what I did to deserve this, but it must have been pretty bad.

As much as I wanted to write up my postgame 'What we learned' post on Sunday evening, I just couldn't bring myself to sit at the computer and think about this game. I needed some time to forget and feel sorry for myself (and watch the game a second time on the DVR).  Well, that and I was  pretty tired from the trip back home.

First off, let's give credit where credit is due.  South Dakota came to play, and executed their offense very efficiently, despite of a lack of experience at several positions, including QB.  This did not appear to be the team that got bullied for 60 minutes versus Central Florida.  Second, let me step out and state that I was pretty much wrong about everything in my prediction of this game (although I did come very close to the Gopher's point total).  No establishing the the run.  No imposing of our will.  No carries for Kirkwood (WTH?). No wearing the opponent down and dominating the 4th quarter.  And most obviously, no win.  Instead there was panic on offense.  Panic to score, thanks to the ineptitude of the defense.

As I walked into TCF Bank Stadium at around 10:50 AM that morning, I felt pretty good (aside from the 2 and a half pounds of eggs, cheese, sausage, bacon, and potatoes courtesy of  Sally's Game Day Skillet Scramblers).  The sun was shining, the student section was actually filling up, and people seemed pretty excited about the 1 and 0 Golden Gophers.  But by about the 8 minute mark, the mood was already starting to sour.  The Gophers started out nicely, and looked the part of the more dominant team.  Stoudemire got us rolling with a nice opening kick return across the fifty, and although the first drive was a little more pass-heavy than expected, it stalled but the result was still 3 points.  On defense, things started solid as well. Keanon Cooper got a TFL to open the game, and the Gophers held on a 3rd and short to force a quick 3 and out.  Chris Ganious was being contained and it looked like South Dakota would have to rely on their QB to generate some offense.  That ended up being the worst thing that could have happened for the Gophers.  Coyote QB, Dante Warren was up to the challenge, and Cosgrove, Lee, and Brewster couldn't scheme up anything to stop his legs or his arm.  Two flag routes and 11 minutes later, the Coyotes were up 14-3, and everybody was scratching their heads as to how this could be happening.

Tiree drops Six -  photo by JT

But the Gophs responded, coming right back with a beautiful 49-yard TD pass on the post to Troy Stoudemire.  And on the ensuing USD possession, Michael Carter picked off Warren.  The momentum swing was on.  Or so it seemed.  From there out, for every terrific play Minnesota made on offense was pretty much matched by the Coyotes.  Post Carter INT, Tiree Eure dropped a go-ahead TD pass (see photo on right), and Weber missed a wide open MarQueis Gray on a comeback by sailing the ball 12 feet over his head.  Ellestad completed the trifecta of poor execution with another wide left FG miss.

From this point the defense really started to struggle.  Missed tackles and blown coverage being the main issue. Having already seen the RB screen once and getting fooled, the Gophs again got suckered by the clear path to the QB, this time yielding a 26-yard TD scamper.  Now fairly shocked late in the 2nd quarter, I couldn't think things could go much worse until I saw Weber cough up the ball on a nice scramble, well past the 1st down marker when he could have slid.   Down 21-10, it was a nightmare half to be sure.  I can only imagine what Brewster's halftime speech must have been like.
Still, the game was in reach, and even though a blowout win was a distant memory, there was a feeling that with some key halftime adjustments on defense,  we could dominate the second half and salvage an ugly victory.  Once again my faith was misplaced.



Much to my surprise, the students showed up in force - photo by JT

 Things only got worse on defense, and the rest of the way the Gopher offense had to frantically try and put enough points on the board to close the gap.  The Minnesota defensive backs gave massive cushions to the USD receivers, and were regularly beat on quick slants and short comebacks that extended drives.  And while the defense seemed capable of stopping Ganious on the ground (16 carries for just 8 years), they couldn't track down Warren on bootlegs, nor could they cover any deep routes down the middle.  Essentially all USD had to do to score was run just enough to keep Minnesota honest, and then just strike downfield or roll out on a naked boot.  And that 4th and short that Warren scored on untouched?  Chalk that one up to Cosgrove for overcommitting the defense to the run up the middle.

And as admirable as it was to see Jeff Horton and Adam Weber do their damnedest to get the Gophers to close the gap, the defense couldn't produce enough stops to get the Gophers that last possession they needed to pull ahead.  Brewster's decision to try and convert a 4th and 2 with 12 minutes left on the USD 24 was perhaps questionable, but the kick was going into the wind, and Ellestad has been money to miss from outside of 40 yards all season (0 for 3).  This kind of talk is, of course, pretty damn ridiculous though, when you're talking about needing to play catchup against an FCS opponent (to say nothing of giving up nearly 500 yards of total offense to an FCS opponent).  And so there we were in the final quarter, doing things like lining up for a fake onside kick, making illegal forward laterals, and other such signs of desperation that I hadn't expected to see on this day.  That Sally's Skillet probably should have come back up right around then, but I somehow spared my lovely wife the indignity.  Thank goodness this game was in as beautiful and alcohol-free a setting as it was.  Had I been in the 'Dome, I surely would have been heaving into a urinal trough.  The day and the stadium sent this defeat from 'truly unbearable' to just straight-up 'unbearable'

So what did we learn from this loss?  First and foremost, I found that my seemingly boundless faith in Brewster hath been shaken.  And while he shouldn't be fired midseason (simply not fair to the kids playing for him), you have to wonder now what it will take for him to save his job for the final year of his contract.  Just 2 games into the season, and I'm already more confused by this team than in any other year of the Brewster era.  What are we?  Talented, but horribly inconsistent is what comes to mind. That, or just bad, with a few respectable playmakers.  Neither is a formula for consistent winning.  And now to restore my faith in Coach Brew, it will take a near miraculous remainder of the year (for me, I'd define that as winning 2 of 3 trophy games, and beating Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois).  The likelihood of that happening would appear slim, but I'll live on hope for now.  Barring a season finish like that, Brewster and the 'U' need to part ways.  There.  I've said it, and quantified it (although I'm not hard and fast on things here, I'll trade a USC or Ohio State win for that rinky-dink Governor's Bell any day of the week.  I also learned that MarQueis Gray is ready for prime time as a receiver, (at least against a I-AA teams).  And last I learned just how much we really do miss Theret and Royston.

GBG, Nate, and 2Mutch sadly reflect on the game - photo by JT

So let me be positive here to close out.  There were a number of good (albeit small) things that can be taken out of this game (believe it or not).
1) The O-line couldn't have pass protected much better.  Web had all day to set up and throw from the pocket
2) For the second game in a row, the Gophers largely avoided the drive-killing penalties that wracked them in previous seasons
3) Favorite play on offense - the trips left formation where Weber found MarQueis down the seam for a nice score in the 3rd
4) Favorite play on defense - Gary Tinsley finally diagnosing the halfback screen and snuffing it out for a loss (3rd time's the charm, right?)
5) The express lanes to get in the stadium at Gates A and E were just that - express.  I walked thru in under 15 seconds with 10 minutes to gametime.  Amazing how quick a line can move when you're not patting down every man, woman, and child.

And now USC comes rolling into town next Saturday, no doubt licking their chops at the prospect of 1,000 yards of total offense.  At this point, I'm just hoping the Gophs can score 30 to match SoCal's 70.  Blowout or no, we'll be getting our tailgate on next week in the Ski-U-Mah lot and enjoying ourselves.  And maybe, just maybe - the gods of football owe me one for last weekend?

Stay tuned for the USC @ Gophers preview to be posted on Friday morning.

A Coyote in the Coffers - SoDak in The Bank: South Dakota @ Minnesota Preview

Here we go again with another FCS team.  Fans of most BCS conference teams don't sweat games like these, but the Gopher's recent history with teams from this subdivision hasn't given us much to be overly confident about.  Our last several efforts against I-AA teams have been pretty dismal.  In fact, you have to go all the way back to middle of the Grinnin' Glen Mason Era to find the last game we utterly dominated a non-FBS team (Southwest Texas State, 42-0 in 2002).  Ugh.

Luckily, last week's win over MTSU on the road has me feeling pretty good about the new look Gopher offense, and what we can accomplish against lesser foes.  Sucking up 75% of the clock by grinding out the run has that effect on me.  Not everybody was all that impressed with our opening road win though (thanks for drawing conclusions directly from a box score, Tom Dienhart). That's fine though, we're not looking for approval from the nation media right now, just another win.

So now South Dakota rolls into town this weekend, with nothing to loose and everything to gain.  They got buried 38-7 last weekend on the road at Central Florida, in a game where they only gained 220 yards in total offense, and allowed nearly 500.  By all accounts, UCF did what they wanted with the ball, and controlled all facets of the game.  Statistical bright spots for the 'Yotes in the opener were junior running back, Chris Ganious - who rushed for 89 yards and the lone TD on a 4.5 ypc average, and former Gopher (transfer) junior SS Shane Potter's career high 16 tackles.

Offensively, the Coyotes start an inexperienced QB behind a bigger, physical O-line.  Quarterback Dante Warren, who got his first career start last week, was secure with the ball against UCF, and did not turn the ball over. Chris Ganious, a smallish back at 5'8" and 185 lbs, is expected to be the primary ball carrier to have his name called on the PA this Saturday.  Ganious has had a productive collegiate career, rushing over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs in his first two seasons.  This is the guy the Gophers must stop, first and foremost.  It's not clear how much the USD coaching staff wants Warren to throw yet, (only 19 attempts in a blowout loss), so I'd anticipate Ganious will be getting the ball early and often, to set up the play-action pass.

On defense, the Coyote's don't have a whole lot of film to look at from the Gophers besides run plays (and more run plays - 67 to be exact).   The gameplan for South Dakota's D is likely to be very simple. Stop the runaway train that is time-of-possession - load up the box, and stop the run.  The aforementioned Shane Potter will integral to that game plan, coming up from the strong safety position as the 8th man.

Charlie Coyote - Courtesy www.usd.edu

So can South Dakota jump back off the mat, wipe their bloodied nose, and hold their own against the Gophs?  The answer is a resounding, 'no', provided the execution in the run game we saw against MTSU is there.  I have to believe that Brew and Horton have no interest in generating any more film of the playbook for USC than they have to.  Ditto for Cosgrove and Lee on defense.  So I expect to see a pretty vanilla game plan, very similar to last week's.  Pound the rock and wear down the defense.  Horton continues to assert that they won't go away from the run too quickly if its not successful, and until I see otherwise, I believe him.  So more heavy doses of vitamin B(ennett), E(skeridge), and K(irkwood). And if the lead gets built up, I'd expect Kirkwood to get the bulk of the carries down the stretch to keep Bennett's legs fresh for USC.  And perhaps with that presumptuous lead, we'll also see MarQueis under center for some work later in the game (crossing fingers).

As far as the D goes, look for tackling and play diagnosis to be improved, as I'd guess these were items focused on in practice all week. I'd like to see somebody in our front 4 get a sack this week, but if not, I'm confident I'll see multiple TFLs on runs from them.  Presuming the secondary is without Royston again this week, I'm going to watch Lewis and Manuel closely to see if there is improvement there.  Overall, our team speed on defense should be enough to overwhelm the Ganious et al, provided they remain under control and stay disciplined.

On the starting lineup front, it sounds as if the LT job will be Ed-O's (Ed Olson Jr.) again this week, as Alford is still suspended for violating team rules.  And it appears that Theret will remain suspended as well.  Royston's status is still up in the air as to whether he's healthy enough to take the field yet.  Jon Hoese, who lost his father this earlier this week is also a question mark. Stay tuned, I imagine we'll hear on the status of these guys soon.

So how does this all play out? Well, KFAN's resident Gopher basher, Dan Barreiro suggested that a win by less that 4 TDs would be an 'embarrassment'.  So if my prediction holds true (27 point win, see below) - expect the usual ill-informed jokes and bits we usually hear from The Fan.  At the beginning of this week, I was feeling a little nervous about this game, given our recent history with FCS teams.  Nothing lasts forever though, and my attitude started to swing after listening to Brew's post-practice Q&A (thanks MV), and researching USD's game against Central Florida.   I think starting the season out on the road had this team focused from the get-go, and the low expectations of the national media are a continuous motivator going forward.  Gophs roll on to 2 and 0.  And then let USC prep-week begin.

Prediction: Minnesota 41, South Dakota 14

Gopher Player of the Game: Donnell Kirkwood - 18 carries for 130 yards and 2 TDs

Coyote Player of the Game: Chris Ganious - 25 carries for 105 yards and 1 TD

Sidenote:  According to Gophersports.com , a number of improvements in stadium operations are going to be implemented this year (think express entrances, new concessions, etc).  Look for a quick review of how things are at The Bank in year 2 embedded within the next "What We Learned" post.