Who can forget how the season was unfolding after we matched up with the Illini last year? We came out of Champagne with a big road win. And at the time, it felt like the first signature win for Brewster and Co. A 6-1 record was exceeding all expectations, to be sure. Things were looking up for the program.But then Illinois ended up finishing 5-7 on the year, the Gophers dropped their last 4 conference games (and then their bowl game) and the luster of that win had come completely off.
Since then, the Illini have continued their decent into playing bad football. And the Gophers? Well, lets just say we're still trying to figure them out. And while two weeks ago, this game looked like it would probably be a gimme, last week Illinois goes out and gives Michigan the kind of beatdown that makes us all nervous about what team might roll into TCF Bank Stadium. So which Illini team will show up this Saturday morning?
Tough call. It would seem that the win over Michigan last week has boosted the confidence of the Illini, and got them remembering the talent that exists on their roster. But I'm not entirely convinced that they ever forgot. And their slide this year really does look like a continuation of last season. They finished 2008 badly, and they continued to play some pretty awful football this year too. No matter the Illinois team that shows up, the win over Michigan may have been a blessing in disguise, as it will keep the Gophers from treating this game like the gimme it appeared to be.
No one would deny Illinois has talent, particularly at the skill positions. Juice Williams was expected to be an All-Conference selection at QB this year. Junior Arrelious Benn was thought to rival Eric Decker as the best WR in the Big Ten. Daniel Dufrene, Jason Ford, and Mikel LeShoure are all skilled running backs. And WR Florida transfer Jared Fayson looked like he could make an immediate impact. So far, not so good. Statistically speaking, each of these players has underperformed, either due to injury or poor play.
So how did the Illini manage to give Michigan a licking? They ran the ball, and then they ran it some more. 54 times total to be exact. For 377 yards. Juice only threw 11 times (efficiently completing 8 balls for 123 yards). Given that that was the formula that beat Michigan, I'd look for Zook to want to continue rushing the ball early and often, and then going to the play-action pass periodically.
The Gopher defense is statistically near the bottom of the Big Ten in most categories, but anyone who has watched our defense knows that stats don't tell the whole story though. We're generally stout against the run (unless the back is the size of a defensive end AKA John Clay), when the offense moves the ball enough to allow for the D to catch a blow. This is evidenced by our containing the Northwesteren, Purdue, MSU backs, and solid 1st half performances against Penn State and OSU. If Illinois wants to run, run, and run some more - I say bring it on. It plays to our strength. That said, I fear Illinois will have seen enough tape on us over the past few weeks to know how to exploit us in the secondary and create blown coverage situations. If Benn is fully healthy and recovered from his ankle issues, then watch out. He will be difficult to stop, especially if he and Juice start playing pitch and catch early. I'd also expect Zook to pull out all the trickeration in the playbook. And why not. What do they have to lose at this point? Onside kick at random points in the game, fake punts, flea-flickers, etc. They could all be coming our way in this game.
I say that knowing full well that Weber and the offense have to move the ball regularly to give our defense a chance to perform the way we know they can. So what do you do for an encore after racking up 500 yards of total offense last week? Well, I'd be satisfied to trade in a bunch of those passing yards for rushing yards, given that they'll improve our net time of possession. We didn't run the ball particularly well last week, and that needs to change. A generous dose of Bennett between the tackles, and Whaley on the outside, with MarQueis continuing to come in on 2nd downs could pay dividends late in the game if we stick with it.
Can Weber continue to find the receivers he ignored the first half of the season? Last week's game showed us that a passing game can exist in the AD (after Decker), and our other receivers are talented. As much as Illinois' confidence was boosted by beating Michigan, Weber's must also be equally boosted by tossing 5 TDs. Let's hope this carries him through the rest of the season, and 'Bad Web' goes away for the long term. And if the line provides excellent protection for Weber again this week, I see no reason he can't have another big game. The thing I like best about our offense without Decker right now is the fact that opposing defenses don't have one clear player to key on. Tow-Arnett, Bennett, Green, Stoudemire, and McKnight all had multiple big moments last week, and any one of them could go off for a big game.
And as far as penalties go, I fully expect to see the team tighten things up and keep the yellow flags below 6 this week. Given the record setting performance set by the Gophs last week, I'd be stunned if the coaching staff didn't make this a priority.
Early in the week, I felt like this game would end up very similar to the MSU game, a close high-scoring affair. I've revised that opinion now, and I think we'll handle our business at home. A win this Saturday is huge, as it gets us bowl eligible, so the team will be amped up. This of course would set us up for the quintessential 'trap game' next week against South Dakota State with Iowa looming right behind them. But lets just deal with Illinois for now.
Prediction: Minnesota 35, Illinois 17
Illini Player of the game: Mikel LeShoure - 18 carries for 85 yards, 1 TD
Gopher Player of the game: Kevin Whaley - 15 carries for 120 yards and 2 TDs
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