Salvaging the Season, Saving Floyd - Gophers @ Hawkeyes Preview

Well, here we go - one last chance in the regular season to salvage some good feelings out of this season. The Gophs are 6-5 right now, and by nearly all major publication preseason expectations, six wins is slightly better than was predicted. Of course we Gopher fans had at least marginally higher expectations, despite the tougher schedule. So here we are, playing for a chance to go 7-5, a record that at the beginning of the season we would have been happy with, but somehow last week's win over South Dakota State has put a layer of tarnish over things. Time to shake off that attitude.

Yeah, a lot of things haven't gone as planned in 2009. Adam Weber's progression as a Big Ten QB has gone in reverse. We were robbed of seeing Eric Decker potentially grab some big time hardware (All-American and Biletnikoff anyone?). We lost to a Juice-less Illinois at home. Ok, all that sucks. But we still got to 6 wins somehow, defying the critics, and likely earning another crack at that Insight.com Bowl. No, it wasn't pretty, but its not a disaster either (we'll leave program disasters to Michigan and Rich Rod). Let's remember that as we get ready to watch our beloved Maroon and Gold take on the hated Hawkeyes this Saturday morning.

So - do we have a chance to win at Kinnick Stadium? Perhaps foolishly, I resoundingly say 'Yes'. And here's three reasons why:

1.) The Hawkeyes have not played well at home all year. Tight wins against Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Indiana, and a loss to Northwestern, are nothing to be real proud about.

2.) James Vandenberg, who played well against OSU last week, is still a red-shirt freshman. And freshman QBs make mistakes. Cosgrove and Lee will have the D ready to go again this week, and will be looking to capitalize on an inexperienced QB.

3.) Getting drubbed 55-0 at home last year. Brewster doesn't need to work hard to motivate the team (unless you believe the latest Patrick Reusse efforts to deconstruct the program). The seniors on this team have a lot of pride and will do their damnedest to deliver Floyd to our custom-made trophy case.

But of course there are at least 3 major reasons we should lose too:

1.) Iowa has superior offensive and defensive lines. They could very easily dominate us up front on both sides of the ball. If we don't match their physicality, we could be in for a long game.

2.) Adam Weber. When he plays badly, our defense can only hold out for so long. At this point, I'm not sure I should expect anything from him but a bad game.

3.) Iowa has something to play for yet. A win gives the Hawkeyes an outside chance to make an at-large BCS bowl bid. That's big. And big $$ for the program.

Of course, I'm Mr. Positivity this season, and so I'll lean in the direction of a Gopher win on the road. Brewster has yet to win a 'trinket' game in his 3 seasons, and he needs something desperately to hang his hat on going into the next year, to keep the fans and his players believing.

What do we need to do to get this seventh win? On offense, it obviously comes down to doing the things we haven't done consistently all year. Run and pass block effectively. Minimize the penalties. And mix in MarQueis on plays that result in more than a lot of arm-waving, sideline glances, and wasted timeouts. A pretty generic formula for offensive success, admittedly. But there it is. Obviously, the offensive starters and the coaching staff have known this for weeks. It just comes down to execution. We saw it during the MSU game, so we know the offense has the capability to produce.

Defensively, getting pressure on Vandenberg is key, and if Cosgrove is selective about when to run blitzes, this can generate turnovers for the Gophers, as it did against SDSU. The rest is just boilerplate. The defense has played well enough all year, and we know what to expect from them at this point. If the offense can get enough first downs to gain the TOP needed to keep the defense fresh, and keep from turning the ball over in our own territory, then we'll be in this game. The Iowa RBs (Wegher and Robinson) have been solid if unspectacular this year, but it is unclear if Wegher will play (rib injury). The front seven should be able to contain either back though, if they match the Iowa O-line's physicality. Hawkeye receivers McNutt, Johson-Koulianos, Moeaki, and Stross have all made big catches in big games this year, so Vandenberg has plenty of targets to look at downfield. This is the larger concern. The secondary will need to make plays, and I presume Vandenberg will attempt to pick on true frosh CB Michael Carter. Carter has the talent to rise to the challenge on the road, so I'll be watching him closely this week.

Predictions? I really don't want to pick the Gophers to pull off the road dog (+9.5) upset, but I'm gonna. Why? Like I said, I'm "Mr Positivity". I'll leave it at that.

Prediction: Minnesota 17, Iowa 14

Gopher Player of the Game: Simoni Lawrence - 9 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF

Hawkeye Player of the Game: Adrian Clayborn - 5 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF

Goooooo Gophers! - Get Floyd back home where he belongs!