Its been awhile since we've played Michigan State, with our last meeting coming in 2006 at Spartan Stadium. The Round Table Road Crew had the good fortune to be at that game, as it was a very enjoyable road win (31-18, Gophers). That Gopher team we watched that cold November day was very different than the one we watch now. Grinnin' Glen Mason was the Head Coach, our offense was a fine-tuned machine lead by the competent Bryan Cupito, and defensive meltdowns were our speciality (vs. Texas Tech in the Insight.com Bowl, anyone?). And under Mason, we've had the recent edge against the Spartans, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings. Things have changed since then. Our new head coach doesn't squint at the scoreboard constantly to see how Ohio State is faring. The defense is more athletic, and tends to keep us in games now. But our offense is currently, well, terrible for lack of a better word. So can Brewster's Gophs continue our recent success over MSU?
Despite coming off back-to-back beatdowns from ranked Big Ten opponents, I think the answer is a resounding 'yes'. We're coming back home after a brutal 2-week road trip. We've got the prime time Big Ten Network game on Halloween, and the fans should be fired up. State is coming of an emotionally draining last-minute loss to the hated Hawkeyes. And we've got a week to scheme and figure out how to deal with life in the A.D. of the Gopher football timeline (After Decker).
Defensively, I think we can keep the Spartans from rolling up more than 3 TDs on us - provided our offense can get them the rest they need in the second half. Michigan State likes to run the ball, and freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker appear to be decent and improving backs. However, our front 7 seems to handle backs like these two fairly well when not forced to play 40+ minutes of a game. More than the run game though, I'm concerned with the big play potential of senior receiver Blair White. White is now one of the premier wideouts in the Big Ten, and with Decker done for the season, and Arrelious Benn all but disappearing this season, he sits statistically at the top of the heap with Purdue's Keith Smith and IU's Tandon Doss. The two bad blown coverages that led to DeVeir Posey's two long TDs last week against OSU make me nervous. I'll be satisfied if we can limit White to only one big catch all evening. Really though, for the defense to keep things in check, it really comes down to the offense producing more than one first down all game.
Can the offense produce some sustained drives and score some points this week? That's the big question. Adam Weber has looked absolutely dreadful most of this season, and freshman phenom MarQueis Gray is now looking more and more viable as a starting QB with each passing week. Coach Brew announced at his press conference this week that Weber would be the starter, but that they would again use MarQueis again in a similar capacity as they did last week. Well played by Brewster, as this could mean anything, beyond the fact that Weber will at least trot out for the first snap. The key here is that MSU will have to prepare for both QBs who play very differently. Now I do think that Weber will still take the majority of the snaps in this game, but I'm expecting to see Gray running the offense for a series or two during meaningful parts of the game, particularly if 'Bad Web' continues to sling the ball.
Without Decker, if would seem that Weber will be hamstrung when looking for that bailout throw as the pocket is collapsing. It remains to be seen who will step up and start making plays in the receiving corps. Last week during the final offensive drive, MarQueis seemed to find a comfort zone with Troy Stoudemire, so perhaps we'll see that connection continue to develop.
Ideally, O-coordinator Jed Fisch will again attempt to establish the run early and often, and get Kevin Whaley his touches, and build the offensive line's confidence as the game progesses (like we did vs. Purdue). The Spartan front 4 is not as talented as PSU or OSU's, so we shouldn't be quite as mismatched there. Junior linebacker Greg Jones is another story though. Sparty Tom mentioned that he believes that Jones is a legit All-American, and I can't argue. I'm looking forward to see Jones play, as I've only caught glimpses of him this year (vs. Wisconsin and Iowa). He'll absolutely need to be accounted for by the offense every play. And here's an interesting tidbit, Jones was recruited by Glen Mason and was set to become a Gopher (via Mason's Cincinnati pipeline), before the Insight.com Bowl debacle that cost Mason his job. Current Spartan coach Mark Dantonio swooped in during our transition period and nabbed him from us.
So, all that said, I think this game will shake out as a close win for the Gophers. The Gophers absolutely need to win to salvage the season and potentially get to a bowl game, and being at home gives them just enough of an advantage.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Michigan State 23
Spartan Player of the Game: Greg Jones - 13 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 FF
Gopher Player of the Game: MarQueis Gray - 140 yards passing, 1 TD; 95 yards rushing, 1 TD
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