The Boilers come to The Bank - Purdue Preview

Remember the good old days? When a visit from Purdue used to mean a double overtime shoot out, with the over-under set at, oh, around 90? When the likes of Mike Alstott and Chris Darkins rushed for like 1,000 yards combined. Yup - seems like only yesterday that these teams had absolutely no interest in stopping each other, and defense was purely an after thought.

All those years of shared offense and putrid defense came to a grinding halt last season when the Gophs went to West Lafayette on their Homecoming last year and stunned the Boilermaker and Gopher fans alike with a stalwart defensive effort, winning 17-6. We were 7-1 following that win, and ranked #20 in the nation. The Gopher Roundtable Road Crew (an explanation of that for another day) was there and we were all basking in the good times.

Purdue comes up our way this year, and can return the favor of spoiling our 2009 Homecoming, and this game could return the series to its recent high yardage, high scoring ways. The Boilers are 1-4 this season, and have played a tough schedule, losing close to the likes of Oregon, Notre Dame, and most recently, common foe Northwestern. In the process though, they've racked up some pretty impressive offensive numbers. First year head coach Danny Hope had preached a more balanced attack this year, and it seems to have rejuvenated a team that struggled to score last season. Purdue has their own triplets, Senior QB Joey Elliot leads the Big Ten in passing, sophomore RB Ralph Bolden is second in the league in rushing, and WR Keith Smith is second only to Eric Decker in catches. Senior backup RB Jaycen Taylor is no slouch himself, and will also warrant defensive attention.

Defensively, I'm less concerned. Purdue ranks dead last in the B-10 in nearly every defensive category, and played their best defensive game against Northwestern last week, and still yielded 27 points (although their offense did them no favors, turning the ball over 6 times).

The track record of Purdue's defense this year, makes me feel very confident that Minnesota will win this game. Partly because THEY HAVE TO WIN. This is a must-win for Purdue too, but I like the edge unfamiliar settings will give us against the Boilers. The Gophers absolutely cannot afford to lose another game at home this year, and they know it. Coach Brew will pull out all the stops to get this win. With road trips to PSU and OSU looming, a win now is paramount to keeping any kind of bowl game in the picture.

So what do we need to do to ensure a win? On offense, the O-line is key again - as it will be all year. Senior center Jeff Tow-Arnett is out for the season (replaced by backup Trey Davis), and its sounding like Matt Stommes may be surpassed by Dom Alford on the depth chart at left tackle. We can only hope that Alford and Davis are up to the task. Perhaps a little shakeup on the line is exactly what is needed here. Look for the Gophs to try and establish the run again early and often with Bennett, Eskeridge, and Whaley rotating thru and the ball going more to the back who shows the best vision and patience in getting to and thru holes.

Weber to Decker is a forgone conclusion, and Purdue will no doubt watch the tape vs. the Wisconsin game and look to drape a safety over the top on Deck. The Badger blogosphere seems to have strangely claimed that they had success in shutting down Decker, since they "had a scheme to make Decker disappear" and limited his catches in the second half (the failure of this 'analysis' is that they fail to mention that Minnesota had the ball a paltry 8:05 in the second half, and ran only 16 plays). If any one shut down Decker, it was John Clay, not anyone in the Wisconsin's secondary. Ah well, its a compliment when 14o yards and a TD is considered successful. Purdue will similarly scheme to take Decker away and fail. Possibly equal parts Decker's incredible ability and Weber's constant forcing the ball to him in spite of coverage. What really needs to happen this game though, is for another WR to have a break out game and draw a little attention away from Mr. Decker. Brandon Green, are you listening? You're gonna see favorable coverage, so stay in Weber's earhole about getting open. I'm betting Jed Fisch will be watching a lot of film with Weber this week, and Adam will come to play this week, ready to check down to Green and Tow-Arnett more than in weeks past, to the entire offense's benefit.

And what about MarQueis Gray? I know I fully expected to see the kid bounding thru the Badger secondary, but it wasn't to be. Maybe this week? I'm not counting on it any more. If he's not ready to read defenses under center yet, then he isn't. But could still get him on the field in a greater capacity to keep opposing defenses guessing and game planning for one more body.

Defensively, the front seven face another good pair of RBs, but luckily neither tips the scales at 245 lbs like big John Clay did. Perhaps foolishly, I believe the Gopher defense actually did a decent job at GETTING to Clay last week, it was bringing him down that was the problem. There were maroon jerseys getting after him at the line of scrimmage, but then they got dragged for 5-6 yards a crack. I don't think Bolden or Taylor can do this, and we should see improvement against the run this week. Bolden in particular has been involved in the passing game, and with good success (10 catches for 165 yards). This is the biggest concern to me - and the front seven will need to watch for him sliding out of the backfield. Joey Elliot has legs too, and has ripped off a 58-yard dash this season. The secondary will have to contend Elliot throwing to WRs Keith Smith and the Aaron Valentin. The secondary may struggle with these two as they are both big (6'+) and experienced. Valentin is also a dangerous kick return man, but has a bit of a hands issue, fumbling three times this year already on returns. You'd better believe that the excellent kick coverage squad of the Gophs will be looking to chop that ball out of there every chance they get.

And speaking of special teams, what would a Gopher Bandanna Guy game preview be without a Troy Stoudemire TD return prediction? Yet again, Stoudemire ripped off big gains again against Wisconsin, but no paydirt. He's apparently tired of coming close to breaking one too. Purdue is the worst kick cover squad in the league, so I'll continue to press that he WILL score on a return this game (provided Jay Thomas can keep from racking up penalties this week).

Predictions: Minnesota 35, Purdue 23

Boilermaker Player of the Game: Keith Smith - 9 catches, 135 yards, 2 TDs

Gopher Player of the Game: Troy Stoudemire - 190 return yards, 1 TD; 60 receiving yards, 1 TD