USC @ Minnesota: What we learned

The GEGH crew sets up in the Ski-U-Mah Lot - photo by JT

This Saturday gave us yet another beautiful day at The Bank, and with a quality if not villainous opponent in USC coming to town, most Gopher fans that attended seemed able to put aside last weeks horrid loss and rally behind the Gophs for another game.  A win over the rule breakers from SoCal would go some significant distance in helping rerail the season.  The pre-game tailgating scene in the Ski-U-Mah Lot was terrific, and there were plenty of smiling faces, back slapping, and booze to go around.  Gopher Tailgate Nation was out in force again, and happy to be there, despite our recent woes.  Our GEGH group assembled a 3-State alumni contingent, and had a terrific time eating, drinking, and carousing.  I was, in particular, happy to spread the joy that is Cuervo 1800 Reposado with my colleagues (listen up Cuervo, you can advertise on here for free as far as I'm concerned).

With the exception of one irritable dude wearing a nice Chris Darkins, Jim Wacker-era jersey who rebuffed us for our "Darkins! Darkins! Darkins!" chant, most everybody rolling thru the lot appeared to be in good spirits (whatever, the guy obviously didn't know who #44 actually was). Most were expecting the worst and hoping for the best.  It seemed like almost a given that the Gophers would be down multiple touchdowns early, and it would get worse from there.  I was scoffed at by many for my bold (but ultimately foolish) 31-30 Gophers victory prediction.  And during the game, there seemed to be some in attendance that were actually rooting for a blowout loss, so they could feel more validated in their "Fire Brewster Now!" position.  But more importantly, the vast bulk of fans that attended the game were clearly here to support the Maroon and Gold for better or worse.

The ladies love themselves some Gopher Tailgating - photo by Mar

The game itself was pretty entertaining, at least for 3 quarters.  The Gophers hung tough for much of the game, over came some ill-timed mistakes (and flukey bad luck).  But it could only last so long. USC had the superior talent, and eventually found a way to overcome their own assemblage of mistakes (penalties and interceptions).  I read somewhere out there in the blogosphere that this game felt like the Cal game last season.  I'm inclined to agree.  Everyone's favorite 'close personal friend' of a columnist, Sid Hartman suggested that the loss hinged on 3 plays.  I'd suggest that it was really just two plays though; 1) The Jewhan Edwards facemask on the 3rd and long sack, and; 2) rather than the 97-yard kick return TD, the Gophers complete inability to answer that counter-punch with a score of their own following it (another 3-and-out).  That 3-and-out was particularly damning, as it came AFTER Kirkwood gained a tough 8 yards off right tackle on 1st down.

But for once this season, I was not completely mortified by the pass defense.  Yes they gave up 2 big TD passes, but for them to hold Matt Barkley, a shoe-in top 5 NFL draft pick, to under 200 yards in the air and pick him off twice was an accomplishment.  No doubt Kyle Theret's return to the starting lineup was a big reason why.  Unfortunately, once Kiffin figured out that running repeatedly with big back Allen Bradford was the way to go, we were already down and had to play catchup.  My worry earlier in the week had been proven out.  Recent history indicates that these bigger running backs seem to give us trouble, and Bradford and his line had their way with the Gophs through the latter stages of the game.  This was culminated by the 56-yard touchdown run Bradford had for USC's final score, where he dashed down the north sideline completely untouched from start to finish.  Obviously, the run defense really struggled, especially up front later in the game, hardly getting a hand on Tyler or Bradford on several runs.

Barkley wings his first TD of the game - photo by JT

The offense had its moments, but the running game disappointed me.  Bennett tweaked his ankle early and had no impact on this game.  DeLeon was who he always seems to be, a ball-secure first guy without great burst or vision.  Donnell Kirkwood had a few nice runs, but they came too infrequently to allow for the ball-control that Brewster and Horton were clearly seeking with their gameplan.  What really bothered me though wasn't the perceived 'over-commitment' to the run, but rather the lack of creativity and variability in the run calls.  After re-watching the game, I noticed that about 80% of the runs seemed to be between the tackles, and most often just simple dives.  No counters, very little trap blocking, and we didn't see much of the shovel and screen passes either.  Was there something in the scouting report that told the staff that running up the gut was the way to make hay against this squad?  Not sure, but we sure did like the dive play.  The other thing that struck me was that none of our 3 running backs seemed to really even look to make a cut or

Weber again completed a little over half his throws, and did his usual of making just enough good plays in between the bad ons to keep me from being completely frustrated with him.  His interception right before the half was ridiculously bad, as was best served to just throw the ball out of bounds (has Weber EVER done that?) even if it was 3rd down. MarQueis and McKnight looked pretty good when Weber managed to find them.  If McKnight can make that over the outside shoulder catch on the sideline routinely, then he needs to run that route more often in games.

Favorite play on offense:  The great catch in my corner of the endzone by McKnight was the BEST play of the day for the Gophs, but it wasn't my favorite.  That honor goes to the Kirkwood 15-yard run at midfield that might have resulted in a TD had he been able to put a move on his closest defender.  The left side of the O-line opened up a HUGE hole (see photo), and Donnell had lots of green in front of him.  Instead he initiated contact and bowled over the safety.  At the time (early 2nd quarter), I liked the message it sent. In hindsight, he's gotta come up with a Playstation move to freeze that guy.

Look at that hole - how did Kirkwood NOT score - photo by JT

Favorite play on defense:  Manuel's interception of Barkley to end USC's opening drive of the 3rd quarter.  Anthony Jacobs applies the pressure up in Barkley's grill, and Manuel comes over to the TE down the seam and snatches the wobbler out of the air to send the momentum back to the Gophers.

So what did we learn in this, the 3rd week of a still young (yet already exhausting) season?  Many things as usual, perhaps the most important being that tailgating for an afternoon game is preferably to the 11AM starts.  No need to get up at 7AM.  You can leisurely get up at a sane hour and make your way down to Stadium Village with plenty of tailgating hours in front of you. I learned that MarQueis Gray appears to be the go-to receiver for Weber already.  What that means for MG's QB career is unknown, but right now Gray looks like he might become too valuable at WR to become our starting QB if (and only if) Moses Alipate is game-ready in 2011.   I learned that Kyle Theret was definitely missed, perhaps more than I wanted to believe.  I learned that Horton still really does want to keep running the ball, but not in any real creative fashion.  And finally, I learned that handing out a free magazine in the student section is a bad idea.  How we didn't get penalized for all the mags that landed on the field (even during play) was beyond me.  Chalk that one up to having a Big Ten ref crew, I guess.

NIU preview will be up late tomorrow/early Friday, and although I called for the let down loss after USC, I feel a win coming on before plunging into the Big Ten season.

Fight On! (Gophers) The Season Depends On It: USC @ Minnesota Preview

Of all the teams that could be coming into The Bank this Saturday, and after the absolute failure we witnessed last week, the chance to play the University of Southern California might be just the medicine this program needs to get well.

Why?  Well, they're an D-I Single A team for starters (hey-oooo).  They have strong national name recognition, and have recently been one of the preeminent teams in all of college football. They are not particularly well liked by the rest of the nation, nor is Lane Kiffin, their supposed wunderkind new head coach.  The casual Golden Gopher fan (you know, the folks who showed up late, and left at the half last week) expects nothing but a blowout and the total annihilation of the Gophs.  The good news is, #18 USC is nowhere near as tough as they have been over the last decade, and has struggled in both of their two wins this season.  Nowhere to go but up, eh?

Winning this game gets the season back on the rails in a quick way, but still keeps the burner under Brewster to show us it wasn't an anomaly, all while the 'fire Brewster' talk can legitimately (and fairly) continue.  Losing meets the expectations of the masses and the 'fire Brewster' talk can still legitimately continue.  So in a sick sort of way, win or lose - the outcome this Saturday will probably be satisfying in one way or another to all shades of Gopher fans.

USC's most recent national accomplishment is garnering an array of NCAA sanctions for 'lack of institutional control', including a 2-year ban from post-season play, the loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years, and their National Championship victory in the 2005 Orange Bowl versus Texas (one of my all-time favorite college football games apparently never happened now) is now vacated. Oh yeah, and they even lost MN's own Seantrel Henderson (arguably the top HS football recruit in the nation), who dissed the Gophs before committing to USC, and then subsequently dissed the Trojans for the Miami Hurricanes, post-SC sanctions dole out.  Good times.

Will Snoop be in the hizz-ouse Saturday?
AP Photo/K.Djansezian

OK - but we all know USC's off the field woes.  But the real question is, can the Gophers somehow, someway beat this team coming in?  The Trojans are loaded with talent with nothing much to play for but pride. USC has played Hawaii (on the road) and Virginia (at home), and have been less than impressive in both games.  The Hawaii's run n' shoot offense kept in place beyond the departure of June Jones, gave SC all kinds of trouble, and they piled up nearly 600 yards of offense in a shootout with 85 total points.  The home opener for SC vs. Virginia was almost the inversion of their previous game,  a 17-14 defensive slugfest that required the Trojans to recover an onside kick to preserve the win.  In both games USC was outgained by their opponent, and racked up over 100 yards in penalties.  So iffy defense and a lack of discipline seems to be their modus operandi thus far this season.  These problems make it appear to me that USC can be quite vulnerable if they cannot correct these issues.

The Trojan offense, led by sophomore stud, Matt Barkley has been pretty damn impressive this year though, already completing 38 passes at nearly a 66% clip, to go with 7 touchdowns to no interceptions.  Combine that with a strong and athletic line, and Barkley could put up passing numbers that would make Dante Warren's look like chump change.  USC has two primary halfbacks Marc Tyler and Allen Bradford, and both are large (230 lbs+).  This worries me as well, given that we struggled with a similar sized back last year in John Clay, but with a much more experienced defense.  Combine that size of the runners with an athletic and speedy line that can get out in space and block, and it could be big trouble, especially running outside.  The Trojan receivers are good, but not as terrifying as they have been in years past.  Ronald Johnson and Robert Woods will be the primary beneficiaries of Barkley's throws.  The Barkley's offense would appear to be the strength of the team, and must be slowed to give the Gophers any chance of winning.

To counter this offensive unit, its hoped that the return of senior's Kim Royston and Kyle Theret at the safety positions will be a major upgrade for the Gopher's defense.  My concern is that there will be some rust from the lack of live game work for these two, but that said, I'd rather have them on the field than Lewis and Manuel right now.  The front seven should be solid against interior runs, lead by the Smash Brothers (Edwards and Kirksey), but I fear running on the edge will rip off big chunks of yardage, given the issues we had with contain against USD.  To win this game, I think the Gopher D will have to create at least two turnovers and allow none within their own territory.

SoCal's defense has had its difficulties. MV of FBT does his usual superb job of breaking down the USC defense personnel, so I won't elaborate too much.  Lane's daddy (Monte) runs the defense for him, and he's dealing with a lot of inexperience on the DL and backfield.  Frankly, we're seriously out coached here with a coordinator of Monte Kiffin's calibur on the sideline, so we'll need to rely on USC's inexperience leading to mistakes Minnesota can capitalize on.

And the Gopher offense - well, its going to take another appearance of 'Good Web' to give us a chance, as we need him to extend drives on 3rd downs and keep Barkley safely on the sidelines.  I was a little disappointed in Horton last week, as his claim that the Gophers would not abandon running the ball early rang hollow. I felt he went away from really pounding the ball at the Coyotes when the Gophers got down a couple scores.  Part of that was justified though, as our defense couldn't stop them, and we needed to get points somehow.  This week, I'd expect us to run 2 out of 3 times the first couple possessions , but if our defense can't afford us the luxury of a couple USC 3 and outs (or at least short drives) to let the O-line and the RBs get lathered up, we'll be presumably passing early and often.  And hey, the formerly suspended Dom Alford is now back to active status, but guess what?  My favorite Gopher freshman, Ed-O (Ed Olson), will be getting the start at left tackle.  His clamping onto his opportunity to start and not letting go has really impressed me, and I'll be watching him closely to see how he fares against these Pac-10 DEs.

Ultimately, predicting the outcome of this game comes down to is what you believe will happen on this Saturday.  USC might beat Minnesota 99 out of a 100 matchups, but if that one win comes up, then all the analysts and experts are wrong.  I was excited when we got SC on the schedule, and I remain so.  Its a great opportunity for this young Gopher team to prove something (or conversely, get their asses handed to them, and learn something).  Early this season in the 'Calling our Shot' post, I predicted a win for this game, and I've chose to stick with that, despite what we saw last week.  Up until this afternoon, I was all but convinced the Gophs would have a valiant start to the game, but ultimately be crushed in the 2nd half.  Then I watched this yesterday afternoon:

 This clip of a Thursday post-practice interview of Kid Kiffin swayed me back to my pre-season position.  Does this sound like a coach who has his team where he wants it for this game.  By his own admission, he states that "we've got a long ways to go" and that they need to understand this is not a game they can take lightly.  He sounds concerned and its already Thursday.  My usual ridiculous positivity, although diminished, can last at least through pre-game tailgating this Saturday.  After that, all bets are off.  Gophers jump on USC early, and then hang on by a thread.  Pics and post-game to come next week.  GOOOOO GOPHERS!

Prediction: Minnesota 31, USC 30

Gopher Player of the Game: Adam Weber - 24 for 32 for 245 yards and 3 TDs

Trojan Player of the Game: Marc Tyler - 18 carries for 120 yards and 2 TDs