Gophers @ Spartans–Tourney Resume Building 101: Get a tough road win

So the Purdue game last Tuesday didn’t go so well – poor shooting and execution on the offensive end left the Gophers looking like a B-list Big Ten team. Maybe they are. But maybe not. The 2nd half performance against Ohio State restored some of my faith in the season. Evan Turner was back from injury (and extra whiny to boot), but it didn’t matter as the Gophs kept turning the Buckeyes over, and the Hoff wouldn’t stop making shots. Things even got a little chippy there in the end. All in all, the way I like to see a Minnesota Big Ten basketball game to go. Can this performance be repeated in East Lansing this week?

As Sparty Tom stated in his game preview, Spartan Head Coach Tom Izzo seems to have Tubby’s number, beating Smith’s teams 9 out of 11 times (and 5 out of 5 times with Minnesota). What’s up with this? A closer look at the Minnesota-MSU games over the last 3 years reveals that in the 5 Tubby Era games versus MSU, the Gophs have only managed to muster more than 60 points once in 5 tries. The average team shooting percentages have been a dismal 37.7% for the Gophs in these matchups, while the Spartans have averaged a 46.4% shooting percentage. Tough numbers to overcome. Izzo knows how to ‘D’-up the Gophers, and forces us to take bad shots in our half court sets. Running with them can be disastrous too, given their athleticism (especially at guard).

So can the Gophs buck the trend here and get a win on the road? Every Gopher player knows that a win over the #7 Spartans at the Breslin Center would look damn good on any resume for a team trying to prove they belong in the field of 64, and it tightens the Big Ten conference title race further (especially since Purdue just picked up their second loss in stunning fashion last night). Obviously, the motivation should be there. Defensively, forcing lots of turnovers like the Gophers did against OSU will not be enough. They need to convert on a much higher percentage of their opportunities on the offensive end. And unless Blake or Westbrook are shooting lights out, that seems to be a tall order. Barring the continued white-hot shooting of Hoffarber, the answer might lie with sophomores Ralph the 3rd and Colt 45. Get these guys the ball early, and let them post up and draw fouls against the less experienced Spartan big men. If this happens, the Gophs might be able to hang around long enough to make it a game in the final 2 minutes.
That said, I still don’t have a good feeling about tonight’s game, and our halfcourt offense is has not improved much since the pre-conference schedule. This worries me, since a footrace with MSU won’t work the way it did with Iowa.

Prediction: Michigan State 70, Gophers 58

Sidenote: The hot rumor flying around Gopher message boards right now is that Al Nolen and Rodney Williams will become academically ineligible in the near future (possibly next week), due to incomplete course work. Tubby has responded to questions surrounding this by stating that he is not concerned and expects all his players to complete the work they need to in order to stay eligible. Whether or not ineligibility is a legit issue remains to be seen, but a Gopher team without Al Nolen defending at the point is not the same (as much as I like what I’ve seen from freshman Justin Cobbs so far). Let’s hope these rumors are only that, otherwise being NIT bound seems inevitable.

Minnesota @ Michigan State Game Preview (the Spartan Angle)

As we did with football, this hoops season 'GEHG' occasionally tries to give you a game preview from a fellow blogger or educated fan with allegiance to colors other than the beloved Maroon and Gold. The Gophs have another crack at building their currently rather weak NCAA Tourney resume this Wednesday evening, taking on Michigan State at the Breslin Center.

Enter once again, our friend 'Sparty Tom' - who did a great job previewing the wild Gophs vs. Spartans All Hallow's Eve game. Here's his take on the game:

The Minnesota Gopher program gained instant credibility in the eyes of Spartan fans when they hired Tubby Smith as head coach a few years ago. Teams around the Big Ten knew that all Tubby would need is 3-4 years before they are competitive with the conference’s top teams. Well, that time is now. However, in the world of college basketball some coaches just seem to have other team’s number. If Bo Ryan makes the Spartan faithful hold their collective breath (see Bo’s 11-5 record against Izzo), they usually breathe a little easier when Tubby is standing on the opposing sideline. Going back to his days in Kentucky, Tom Izzo has consistently beaten Tubby Smith in both regular season and NCAA tournament games (also see Tubby’s 2-9 record against MSU in his time at Minnesota). With that being said, this may be Tubby’s most talented team since his arrival to the Big Ten conference, and may have a good chance of leaving East Lansing on Wednesday with a resume-building win.

Now to the game at hand: Michigan State has come out of the gate with a 3-0 conference record, with wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The Spartans boast a talented lineup that returns almost every guard from the 2009 National Title run. Their growing pains have come at the center and power forward position, where they are inexperienced and undersized when playing other elite-level teams. Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman have shown flashes, but they are freshmen…and freshmen are inconsistent. Sixth man Draymond Green (power forward) has been impressed everyone in his sophomore season with his passing ability and knack for getting the tough points in the paint; however he is undersized at 6’6”. At the guard spot, the Spartans boast as much talent as anyone in the Big Ten, with Kalin Lucas, Korie Luscious, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen. These guys love to turn the game into a track meet. On the Minnesota side, they are among the nation’s top teams in many defensive categories including turnover margin and scoring margin. These Gophers can score the basketball with anyone in the Big Ten, and Sparty better be prepared for it. Lawrence Westbook and Blake Hoffarber are dangerous and will be key to any Gopher upset, as they are both averaging double digit scoring numbers. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 84.1 points in their last nine games.

If Spartan fans are expecting an easy Izzo vs Tubby victory, they may be greatly disappointed. The Gophers are playing tough basketball, and the Spartans are having some attitude issues…aka Kalin Lucas being tossed out of practice last week for lack of effort and leadership. In the end, I believe talent will win out in this one. It may be a close game, but the Spartans are too tough to beat at the Breslin Center, and they may be just starting to hit their stride (or at least Spartan fans hope so).

Prediction: Michigan State – 76 Minnesota - 67

Thanks for that 'Sparty Tom' - well done as always. Check back for Gopher Bandanna Guy's take later today.