Insight Bowl insight - Gophers vs. Cyclones Preview

Its nearly here Gopher Nation. The bowl game we've all waited breathlessly for is almost upon us, complete with its convenient showing on the NFL Network and 5pm CST start time. Ok, so maybe this game is just for the handful of us true believers and die-hard Gopher fans. Be that as it may, we've got one more football game to play, and damned if I'm not still excited. A win on Thursday afternoon puts us over 0.500 for the year, and any way you shake it, that feels a lot better than 6-7.

A lot of Gopher fans understandably feel let down the way the end of the season went, sneaking past South Dakota State and losing to Iowa in a very winnable game. I personally feel more like I was just let down by the offense, rather than the team as a whole, as the defense performed admirably down the stretch. If nothing else, the Insight Bowl gives me a chance to rinse out the bad taste Fisch, Weber and company left in my mouth in Novemeber. I'm excited for that chance, along with the notion that MarQueis will be lining up a WR more regularly this game. I like it. Let's get this kid out in space and see what he can do (hopefully hold on to the ball). At this point, any involvement of him in the offense is a good thing.

The Cyclones appear to have ended their season in similar fashion to the Gophers (close win followed by a tough loss), slipping past a bad Colorado team at home, 17-10, and then getting beat by Mizzou on the road in the 4th quarter to end the regular season. The Gophs and Cyclones have identical overall records (6-6), conference records (3-5), and non-conference records (3-1). Iowa State's big win this year came in-conference, taking down Nebraska on the road in a defensive battle (9-7). Their worst loss was a early season 32-point beat down handed to them by the in-state rival Hawkeyes (3-35). Minnesota and ISU averaged just under 22 points a game on offense, and gave up less than 25 (24.6 and 22.6, respectively). And both squads also appear to have relatively incompetant junior QBs (at least statistically speaking for ISU's Austen Arnaud).

So what differentiates these teams? It would appear that the Cyclones have an edge in the running game, with Minneapolis native Alexander Robinson lining up at halfback and carrying the load for the Cyclones. Robinson is a 1,000 yard Big 12 rusher, despite missing a game. ISU averages 177 ypg on the ground, while the Gophs average less than 100 (98 ypg). But Robinson is a smaller back (5'9" 187 lbs), and seems to be the kind of back that the Gophers tend to have success bottling up (see Ralph Bolden and Edwin Baker). Their struggles have come against the bigger more physical backs (Clay, Martin, Robinson). So perhaps that edge is not as pronounced as the stats may have us believe. Certainly the oddsmakers felt that way, opening the line with the Gophs laying 2.5 points.

Defensively, ISU statstically appears to be the slightly better team, but they largely got off the hook of playing the real offensive stalwarts of the B-12, namely Texas Tech and Texas (they did get lit up by KU for 41 points though). The Gophers had no such luck on their 2009 schedule. So this statistical edge may also be meaningless.

So how does this game shake out then? For me it comes down to the preparation of the Gopher defense to contain Robinson and forcing QB Arnaud into a few costly mistakes. The disguised coverages and blitzes run by Cosgrove against Iowa were highly effective. Can they be again is the question. If 'yes', then the Gophers have a good chance to win, if the offense can actually show up for even a half.

The other big question is Good Web or Bad Web? Who is hanging out in Tempe right now? Adam needs to led the offense and get points on the board in the worst way this Thursday. We've had no offensive TDs in our last 2 games. Attrocious and inexcusable (particularly against a D-2 opponent). Web has to get at least 2 TDs on the board for us somehow, not necessarily by throwing TDs in the endzone, but by keeping drives alive on 3rd and longs, and getting us into position for scores. That and not turning the ball over in our own territory. My confidence in Adam Weber this year has been destroyed by his awful play and decision making in several games late in the season. He's got to get back on track and carry some confidence into 2010 if he is to retain the starting QB role I presume he wants to keep for his senior season. The spotty play of the O-line and our running backs, gives me little confidence that they will carry the day if Weber doesn't, so its got to be Web that leads this team to a win.

Predictions? I feel pretty similar to the oddsmakers on this one. I think a solid effort by the Gopher defense, and some decent game management from Adam Weber will get it done, but not by much. Wild cards for the Gophs? Troy's returns and the role of MarQueis Gray.

Gophers 23, Cyclones 20
Gopher Player of the Game - Lee Campbell, 12 tackles, 1 FF, 2 TFL
Cyclone Player of the Game - Alexander Robinson, 20 carries, 75 yards, 2 TDs

One last sidenote - a win on Thursday couldn't hurt our pipedream chances of landing #1 overall national recruit Seantrel Henderson (Cretin-Durham), who we're at least still in the running with...

Salvaging the Season, Saving Floyd - Gophers @ Hawkeyes Preview

Well, here we go - one last chance in the regular season to salvage some good feelings out of this season. The Gophs are 6-5 right now, and by nearly all major publication preseason expectations, six wins is slightly better than was predicted. Of course we Gopher fans had at least marginally higher expectations, despite the tougher schedule. So here we are, playing for a chance to go 7-5, a record that at the beginning of the season we would have been happy with, but somehow last week's win over South Dakota State has put a layer of tarnish over things. Time to shake off that attitude.

Yeah, a lot of things haven't gone as planned in 2009. Adam Weber's progression as a Big Ten QB has gone in reverse. We were robbed of seeing Eric Decker potentially grab some big time hardware (All-American and Biletnikoff anyone?). We lost to a Juice-less Illinois at home. Ok, all that sucks. But we still got to 6 wins somehow, defying the critics, and likely earning another crack at that Insight.com Bowl. No, it wasn't pretty, but its not a disaster either (we'll leave program disasters to Michigan and Rich Rod). Let's remember that as we get ready to watch our beloved Maroon and Gold take on the hated Hawkeyes this Saturday morning.

So - do we have a chance to win at Kinnick Stadium? Perhaps foolishly, I resoundingly say 'Yes'. And here's three reasons why:

1.) The Hawkeyes have not played well at home all year. Tight wins against Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Indiana, and a loss to Northwestern, are nothing to be real proud about.

2.) James Vandenberg, who played well against OSU last week, is still a red-shirt freshman. And freshman QBs make mistakes. Cosgrove and Lee will have the D ready to go again this week, and will be looking to capitalize on an inexperienced QB.

3.) Getting drubbed 55-0 at home last year. Brewster doesn't need to work hard to motivate the team (unless you believe the latest Patrick Reusse efforts to deconstruct the program). The seniors on this team have a lot of pride and will do their damnedest to deliver Floyd to our custom-made trophy case.

But of course there are at least 3 major reasons we should lose too:

1.) Iowa has superior offensive and defensive lines. They could very easily dominate us up front on both sides of the ball. If we don't match their physicality, we could be in for a long game.

2.) Adam Weber. When he plays badly, our defense can only hold out for so long. At this point, I'm not sure I should expect anything from him but a bad game.

3.) Iowa has something to play for yet. A win gives the Hawkeyes an outside chance to make an at-large BCS bowl bid. That's big. And big $$ for the program.

Of course, I'm Mr. Positivity this season, and so I'll lean in the direction of a Gopher win on the road. Brewster has yet to win a 'trinket' game in his 3 seasons, and he needs something desperately to hang his hat on going into the next year, to keep the fans and his players believing.

What do we need to do to get this seventh win? On offense, it obviously comes down to doing the things we haven't done consistently all year. Run and pass block effectively. Minimize the penalties. And mix in MarQueis on plays that result in more than a lot of arm-waving, sideline glances, and wasted timeouts. A pretty generic formula for offensive success, admittedly. But there it is. Obviously, the offensive starters and the coaching staff have known this for weeks. It just comes down to execution. We saw it during the MSU game, so we know the offense has the capability to produce.

Defensively, getting pressure on Vandenberg is key, and if Cosgrove is selective about when to run blitzes, this can generate turnovers for the Gophers, as it did against SDSU. The rest is just boilerplate. The defense has played well enough all year, and we know what to expect from them at this point. If the offense can get enough first downs to gain the TOP needed to keep the defense fresh, and keep from turning the ball over in our own territory, then we'll be in this game. The Iowa RBs (Wegher and Robinson) have been solid if unspectacular this year, but it is unclear if Wegher will play (rib injury). The front seven should be able to contain either back though, if they match the Iowa O-line's physicality. Hawkeye receivers McNutt, Johson-Koulianos, Moeaki, and Stross have all made big catches in big games this year, so Vandenberg has plenty of targets to look at downfield. This is the larger concern. The secondary will need to make plays, and I presume Vandenberg will attempt to pick on true frosh CB Michael Carter. Carter has the talent to rise to the challenge on the road, so I'll be watching him closely this week.

Predictions? I really don't want to pick the Gophers to pull off the road dog (+9.5) upset, but I'm gonna. Why? Like I said, I'm "Mr Positivity". I'll leave it at that.

Prediction: Minnesota 17, Iowa 14

Gopher Player of the Game: Simoni Lawrence - 9 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF

Hawkeye Player of the Game: Adrian Clayborn - 5 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF

Goooooo Gophers! - Get Floyd back home where he belongs!

Bring on the Jackrabbits! - SDSU @ Gophers Preview

Despite the fact that South Dakota State is a Division I-AA football team, I can't deny that I'm excited about this game. Part of it is the fact that its the last home game of the year, but part of it is also because this game is an opportunity to show the fan base where this program really is headed. Has the Gopher's roster been infused with enough talent over the last two years to prevent another NDSU debacle, and blow the doors off a lesser opponent? Or are we continuing to stagnate as a middling program? A dominating win this Saturday will at least restore some of my confidence that the program is slowly getting to where we all want it. A close win, or (gulp) a loss - and my confidence is severely shaken.

The Jackrabbits, by all accounts are a very good football team. They sit in second place in the Missouri River Valley Conference, with a 7-2 record (6-1 conference). Their most notable win this year, is a 24-14 victory over the Northern Iowa Panthers. Yeah, the Northern Iowa that the Hawkeyes barely snuck past early in the season. Drawing any conclusions from this connection to a Big Ten foe is probably not good for gambling purposes. But as motivation for the Gophers to not sleep on this team it would seem to be a good motivator. From the sounds of things at Brewster's press conference and a Gopherhole.com interview of the SDSU beat writer, this is likely what players are being fed this week. And rightly so, the program seems fragile right now, and an ugly win or a bad loss to a I-AA opponent could damage the team's confidence long term. Not to mention kill the already lukewarm fan interest. Tubby Time starts tomorrow against Tennessee Tech, and many have already washed their hands of Gopher football, for the higher profile basketball team (don't worry we're all excited here at 'Give 'Em Hell Goldy' too, but let's get past SDSU and Iowa first...).

So what do the Gophers need to do to come out and dominate from start to finish? I'd like to believe the biggest component to winning this game big is running the ball over and over and over again. Let our massive line get a lather going, build some confidence, and maybe push people around for once. 45-50 times would be what I prefer. Maybe that means the Gophs only score 14 points in the first half, but if that means success and ball control in the latter half of the game, then so be it. The Jacks (I hate this nickname by the way, and refuse to use it from here on out) have a top notch DE in Danny Batten, who is a potential I-AA Defensive Player of the Year. He'll no doubt be the guy that the O-line will be watching all day, as he apparently lines up all over the place. The game plan of passing early and often has largely failed this team (the anomaly of the MSU game aside), and patience running the ball is a novel approach at this point. Bennett, Whaley, and Eskeridge deserve a real chance to show what they can do, and that relegating runs to 2nd and shorts. With Whaley's speed off tackle against, this could conceivably be his coming out party. Mixing in MarQueis heavily should also keep the SDSU defense guessing (2nd downs, lots of 2nd downs Jed!). When Gray is on the field, he will be the hands-down best athlete on the field. Let's use that to our advantage. Que sera sera with Weber. My only expectation for him is that he not turn the ball over in ways that make it look like he's on the take.

And on defense? From the sounds of it, the Jackrabbits will be starting a freshman drop-back QB with a big arm named Thomas O'Brien. And they have a lot of confidence in this kid, as he's won his first 3 starts. Sioux Falls Argus Leader beat writer, Terry Vandrovec, suggested that were he the Gopher's d-coordinator that he'd "blitz about 80% of the time" to put continuous pressure on the frosh QB. I'd prefer a slightly more conservative approach, that being see if we can get any pressure from the front 4 for a quarter or so, before leaving all our corners on islands. The Jackrabbit rushing attack is led by JR running back Kyle Minnett, who has nearly 1,000 yards and averages 4.9 a carry. No slouch there, I-AA competition or no. So the front seven will need to work hard to bring down Minnett at the point of contact. The Gopher defense has some pride, as they've been the backbone of this team, maintaining our respectability when the offense couldn't buy a first down. Time for them to man up after a sub-par performance against Illinois.

So how will this shake out? Early this week I felt very nervous about this game, and the potential downward spiral effect if could create on the program. But like last week, my confidence has grown as the week went on, and I smell big win. Yes, SDSU will bring fans, and there are a bunch of Minnesota kids on their roster, so there will be lots of family and friends there in support of the Jackrabbits. But our talent and speed should allow us to dominate, provided the game plan is sound. Hopefully the loss to Illinois was the learning experience it should be, and the team will come out fired up for Senior's Day.

Prediction: Minnesota 42, South Dakota State 17

Gopher Player of the Game: Kevin Whaley - 18 carries for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Jackrabbit Player of the Game: Kyle Minnett - 20 carries for 95 yards and 1 TD

Michigan State at Minnesota Game Preview (the Spartan angle)

Once again, in trying to gain some perspective on our upcoming opponent, I've asked a friend from the wrong side of the tracks to give us their perspective. This week its my friend and MSU alum, 'Sparty Tom' who lends his writing talents to our blog, giving us his take on how he thinks the game will shake out. Here's his take:

It’s been an all too common occurrence this year to be writing for an upcoming game after a very close loss from the previous week. I’m a big believer in the three strike rule…meaning three heartbreaking last-second losses in one season, and I don’t think your kids can get off the mat. Yes, Michigan State rescued their season earlier this year with consecutive victories over Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern. However, after a stunning last second loss to Iowa, a last minute loss to Notre Dame, and loss to Central Michigan on a last second field goal, this season has essentially turned into a salvage operation for the Sparties. It’s warm weather bowl, or bust.
Now to the game at hand. Minnesota looked impressive earlier in the season by winning the games they were supposed to win, taking Cal down to the wire, and making Wisconsin a very close game. However, with two blowout losses to Penn State and Ohio State (granted they were both on the road), they appear to be on the ropes. The situation got worse as reports have surfaced that Gopher star receiver Eric Decker will miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury. From a Spartan standpoint the greatest concern is that it’s a night game, the fans will be jacked, and there could be a big hangover from the Iowa heartbreak. For Michigan State on offense, Kirk Cousins has entrenched himself as the full time starting quarterback with the highest passer efficiency rating in the Big Ten conference. Freshman running backs Larry Caper and Edwin Baker continue to improve each week, and are due for a breakout performance. On defense, Spartan linebacker Greg Jones is a legitimate All-American; in my opinion, the surest tackler in the Big Ten. If the defense can duplicate the effort from the previous game, Minnesota could be in for a long night. If not, the Gophers can definitely win this one.
Combine the fact that this is a big game for both teams (in terms of eventual bowl eligibility) and it’s a Halloween night game in which the home fans will be nuts, this one is tough to call. The Spartans may have the edge in talent, and at the beginning of the year this game was circled as a win, but I believe the environment and the effects from last week’s stunner will be too much to overcome. Michigan State is wounded, and Minnesota is playing them at just the right time…

Prediction: Minnesota – 24 MSU – 17

Thanks for that take Sparty Tom, good stuff. I have heard about the excellence of LB Greg Jones, but have yet to watch him much this season. I'll be keeping a close eye on him all game, along with Blair White.