Its nearly here Gopher Nation. The bowl game we've all waited breathlessly for is almost upon us, complete with its convenient showing on the NFL Network and 5pm CST start time. Ok, so maybe this game is just for the handful of us true believers and die-hard Gopher fans. Be that as it may, we've got one more football game to play, and damned if I'm not still excited. A win on Thursday afternoon puts us over 0.500 for the year, and any way you shake it, that feels a lot better than 6-7.A lot of Gopher fans understandably feel let down the way the end of the season went, sneaking past South Dakota State and losing to Iowa in a very winnable game. I personally feel more like I was just let down by the offense, rather than the team as a whole, as the defense performed admirably down the stretch. If nothing else, the Insight Bowl gives me a chance to rinse out the bad taste Fisch, Weber and company left in my mouth in Novemeber. I'm excited for that chance, along with the notion that MarQueis will be lining up a WR more regularly this game. I like it. Let's get this kid out in space and see what he can do (hopefully hold on to the ball). At this point, any involvement of him in the offense is a good thing.
The Cyclones appear to have ended their season in similar fashion to the Gophers (close win followed by a tough loss), slipping past a bad Colorado team at home, 17-10, and then getting beat by Mizzou on the road in the 4th quarter to end the regular season. The Gophs and Cyclones have identical overall records (6-6), conference records (3-5), and non-conference records (3-1). Iowa State's big win this year came in-conference, taking down Nebraska on the road in a defensive battle (9-7). Their worst loss was a early season 32-point beat down handed to them by the in-state rival Hawkeyes (3-35). Minnesota and ISU averaged just under 22 points a game on offense, and gave up less than 25 (24.6 and 22.6, respectively). And both squads also appear to have relatively incompetant junior QBs (at least statistically speaking for ISU's Austen Arnaud).
So what differentiates these teams? It would appear that the Cyclones have an edge in the running game, with Minneapolis native Alexander Robinson lining up at halfback and carrying the load for the Cyclones. Robinson is a 1,000 yard Big 12 rusher, despite missing a game. ISU averages 177 ypg on the ground, while the Gophs average less than 100 (98 ypg). But Robinson is a smaller back (5'9" 187 lbs), and seems to be the kind of back that the Gophers tend to have success bottling up (see Ralph Bolden and Edwin Baker). Their struggles have come against the bigger more physical backs (Clay, Martin, Robinson). So perhaps that edge is not as pronounced as the stats may have us believe. Certainly the oddsmakers felt that way, opening the line with the Gophs laying 2.5 points.
Defensively, ISU statstically appears to be the slightly better team, but they largely got off the hook of playing the real offensive stalwarts of the B-12, namely Texas Tech and Texas (they did get lit up by KU for 41 points though). The Gophers had no such luck on their 2009 schedule. So this statistical edge may also be meaningless.
So how does this game shake out then? For me it comes down to the preparation of the Gopher defense to contain Robinson and forcing QB Arnaud into a few costly mistakes. The disguised coverages and blitzes run by Cosgrove against Iowa were highly effective. Can they be again is the question. If 'yes', then the Gophers have a good chance to win, if the offense can actually show up for even a half.
The other big question is Good Web or Bad Web? Who is hanging out in Tempe right now? Adam needs to led the offense and get points on the board in the worst way this Thursday. We've had no offensive TDs in our last 2 games. Attrocious and inexcusable (particularly against a D-2 opponent). Web has to get at least 2 TDs on the board for us somehow, not necessarily by throwing TDs in the endzone, but by keeping drives alive on 3rd and longs, and getting us into position for scores. That and not turning the ball over in our own territory. My confidence in Adam Weber this year has been destroyed by his awful play and decision making in several games late in the season. He's got to get back on track and carry some confidence into 2010 if he is to retain the starting QB role I presume he wants to keep for his senior season. The spotty play of the O-line and our running backs, gives me little confidence that they will carry the day if Weber doesn't, so its got to be Web that leads this team to a win.
Predictions? I feel pretty similar to the oddsmakers on this one. I think a solid effort by the Gopher defense, and some decent game management from Adam Weber will get it done, but not by much. Wild cards for the Gophs? Troy's returns and the role of MarQueis Gray.
Gophers 23, Cyclones 20
Gopher Player of the Game - Lee Campbell, 12 tackles, 1 FF, 2 TFL
Cyclone Player of the Game - Alexander Robinson, 20 carries, 75 yards, 2 TDs
One last sidenote - a win on Thursday couldn't hurt our pipedream chances of landing #1 overall national recruit Seantrel Henderson (Cretin-Durham), who we're at least still in the running with...
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