Insight Bowl insight - Gophers vs. Cyclones Preview

Its nearly here Gopher Nation. The bowl game we've all waited breathlessly for is almost upon us, complete with its convenient showing on the NFL Network and 5pm CST start time. Ok, so maybe this game is just for the handful of us true believers and die-hard Gopher fans. Be that as it may, we've got one more football game to play, and damned if I'm not still excited. A win on Thursday afternoon puts us over 0.500 for the year, and any way you shake it, that feels a lot better than 6-7.

A lot of Gopher fans understandably feel let down the way the end of the season went, sneaking past South Dakota State and losing to Iowa in a very winnable game. I personally feel more like I was just let down by the offense, rather than the team as a whole, as the defense performed admirably down the stretch. If nothing else, the Insight Bowl gives me a chance to rinse out the bad taste Fisch, Weber and company left in my mouth in Novemeber. I'm excited for that chance, along with the notion that MarQueis will be lining up a WR more regularly this game. I like it. Let's get this kid out in space and see what he can do (hopefully hold on to the ball). At this point, any involvement of him in the offense is a good thing.

The Cyclones appear to have ended their season in similar fashion to the Gophers (close win followed by a tough loss), slipping past a bad Colorado team at home, 17-10, and then getting beat by Mizzou on the road in the 4th quarter to end the regular season. The Gophs and Cyclones have identical overall records (6-6), conference records (3-5), and non-conference records (3-1). Iowa State's big win this year came in-conference, taking down Nebraska on the road in a defensive battle (9-7). Their worst loss was a early season 32-point beat down handed to them by the in-state rival Hawkeyes (3-35). Minnesota and ISU averaged just under 22 points a game on offense, and gave up less than 25 (24.6 and 22.6, respectively). And both squads also appear to have relatively incompetant junior QBs (at least statistically speaking for ISU's Austen Arnaud).

So what differentiates these teams? It would appear that the Cyclones have an edge in the running game, with Minneapolis native Alexander Robinson lining up at halfback and carrying the load for the Cyclones. Robinson is a 1,000 yard Big 12 rusher, despite missing a game. ISU averages 177 ypg on the ground, while the Gophs average less than 100 (98 ypg). But Robinson is a smaller back (5'9" 187 lbs), and seems to be the kind of back that the Gophers tend to have success bottling up (see Ralph Bolden and Edwin Baker). Their struggles have come against the bigger more physical backs (Clay, Martin, Robinson). So perhaps that edge is not as pronounced as the stats may have us believe. Certainly the oddsmakers felt that way, opening the line with the Gophs laying 2.5 points.

Defensively, ISU statstically appears to be the slightly better team, but they largely got off the hook of playing the real offensive stalwarts of the B-12, namely Texas Tech and Texas (they did get lit up by KU for 41 points though). The Gophers had no such luck on their 2009 schedule. So this statistical edge may also be meaningless.

So how does this game shake out then? For me it comes down to the preparation of the Gopher defense to contain Robinson and forcing QB Arnaud into a few costly mistakes. The disguised coverages and blitzes run by Cosgrove against Iowa were highly effective. Can they be again is the question. If 'yes', then the Gophers have a good chance to win, if the offense can actually show up for even a half.

The other big question is Good Web or Bad Web? Who is hanging out in Tempe right now? Adam needs to led the offense and get points on the board in the worst way this Thursday. We've had no offensive TDs in our last 2 games. Attrocious and inexcusable (particularly against a D-2 opponent). Web has to get at least 2 TDs on the board for us somehow, not necessarily by throwing TDs in the endzone, but by keeping drives alive on 3rd and longs, and getting us into position for scores. That and not turning the ball over in our own territory. My confidence in Adam Weber this year has been destroyed by his awful play and decision making in several games late in the season. He's got to get back on track and carry some confidence into 2010 if he is to retain the starting QB role I presume he wants to keep for his senior season. The spotty play of the O-line and our running backs, gives me little confidence that they will carry the day if Weber doesn't, so its got to be Web that leads this team to a win.

Predictions? I feel pretty similar to the oddsmakers on this one. I think a solid effort by the Gopher defense, and some decent game management from Adam Weber will get it done, but not by much. Wild cards for the Gophs? Troy's returns and the role of MarQueis Gray.

Gophers 23, Cyclones 20
Gopher Player of the Game - Lee Campbell, 12 tackles, 1 FF, 2 TFL
Cyclone Player of the Game - Alexander Robinson, 20 carries, 75 yards, 2 TDs

One last sidenote - a win on Thursday couldn't hurt our pipedream chances of landing #1 overall national recruit Seantrel Henderson (Cretin-Durham), who we're at least still in the running with...

Brewster gets extension?

This morning, the Strib's Gopher Football beat reporter, Kent Youngblood, reported that Gopher AD Joel Maturi deemed that Coach Brew has earned a contract extension, and that the negotiations have already begun.

Stability was the key word Maturi used to justify his belief that Brewster should be extended. If you've read any of Gopher Bandanna Guy's posts on this blog in the past, you know that I agree with Maturi wholeheartedly. Which is not to say that stability is the only reason Brew should be extended, but it is a significant one in my mind.

So let's analyze this move a bit (assuming Brew does get extended). What are the pros and cons? Let's start with the pros - First, recruiting promises can continue to be made (playing time, positional guarantees, etc.). Second, the new out-state recruiting pipelines that are being established can continue to develop (Texas, Florida, Louisiana). Third, the young and upcoming players aren't forced to learn a different system (provided Brew keeps his coordinators in town). Fourth, the University doesn't send the message that "2 bowl games in 3 years gets you canned" to every other potential coaching hire in the country. And finally, re-upping with Brewster gives us a much better chance to retain him long-term should he make big gains in his 4th and 5th contracted seasons.

Now the cons. 1) We run the risk of continuing to have a football program without any kind of identity. 2) We run the risk of continuing the revolving door situation with coordinators. 3) We risk mediocrity or worse - what if Brewster cannot bring the program above the 6-6 (3-5) level throughout his tenure. 4) Reusse and Souhan will continue their campaign of negativity 'cause they don't like the guy.

So where does the Star Tribune online reading public fall on this topic? Well, the informal poll on the Stribs website when I checked had nearly 80% stating that Minnesota needed a coaching change, and 20% believed stability was more important (I should point out that this poll allowed multiple voting opportunities from the same computer, including 3 votes for the minority position by yours truly).

Now I realize that most of this 80% is made up of the mouth-breathers that still think we can land Tony Dungy or should hire back Lou Holtz away ESPN, but let's get real here people - NCAA Div 1 head football coaches don't get fired after their first 3 years. Especially when they make 2 bowl games, and expectations were not all that great. The only place the truly high expectations were coming from were the Gophers themselves. And that's where high expectation should be coming from at all times. Brew-haters - ask yourself if your opinion of Coach Brew would change at all if we had beat South Dakota State by 30. Or if we had beaten Illinois and were going to the Alamo Bowl instead. My guess is you'd still be hating on the guy.

My final take? Brew should be extended 2 years, unless the Gopher's showing vs. Iowa State on Thursday is absolutely dreadful. If that turns out to be the case, then back down to a 1-year extension, with another year possible if certain incentives are reached in 2010. Yeah, there's the possibility that Brewster won't agree to a 1-year deal, and if that's the case, let him sweat.

I'd love to hear other's opinions, on this polarizing topic within Gopher Nation.

Gophers draw Iowa State at the Insight.com Bowl

Back to Tempe again - for the Southwestern equivalent of the 'Music City Bowl' versus the Iowa State Cyclones and Cy the Cardinal. That's what 6-6 gets you. And Michigan State gets to go to beautiful San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, despite having the same record as us, and losing to us head-to-head. Yeah, their conference record was 4-4 to our 3-5, but then they didn't have to play Ohio State either. Guess Spartan fans travel better.

Oh well, I'm not sure I wanted a rematch with Texas Tech in a bowl again anyways. The draw of Iowa State seems much more palatable a team to play in our bowl game. Now to be honest, I don't know much about Cyclone football aside from they play in the Big 12 North, and Seneca Wallace played for them circa 2002. So, I'll be doing a little research over the next few weeks. Stay tuned for usual pre-game preview.

Gophers fall to 'Canes, Brewster's house STILL for sale, and GEHG plans for hoops season

63-58 Hurricanes. Another tough, close loss by the Gophs tonight. That's 3 in a row now. They let it slip away in the last two minutes, that were tough to watch, kickstarted by an Al Nolen turnover as the Gophers were only down 2. Speaking of Nolen, he played another gutsy game, (6 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 9 points). I'm continually impressed by Nolen, as he gets significant minutes on the floor, despite the fact that he is absolutely not a threat to score from anywhere on the floor (layups the exception). Just think where his assist numbers would go if he was a dangerous shooter and defenders would have to respect him from the perimeter. I gotta believe he works on his shot. I just don't get how it hasn't improved one lick since his freshman year.

Site contributor 2Mutch tipped me off on this little gem - Tim Brewster's Shorewood, Minnesota house is for sale (see pic above). After doing approximately 5 minutes of research, it turns out its been for sale since last September, and Kent Youngblood speculates that Brew wants to be closer to the 'U' to cut down on his commute. Seems reasonable to me. But wait - if you had the misfortune of watching the local Minneapolis Kare 11 sportscast last Monday, you would have believe they broke this story, and the house just went on the market, putting all the 'Fire Brewster' mouth-breathers in 'Bring in Tony Dungy' mode. Kare 11 never mentioned the home was for sale for the last 3 months. Nice work morons - that's some quality journalism there. Brew is not going anywhere. Firing him now sends every potential coaching hire in the nation the message that 2 Bowl games in your first 3 years of rebuilding a program gets you fired. That will really bring a the A-list candidates our way, right?

One last thing friends - just wanted to mention that Give 'Em Hell Goldy will go into full blown Gopher hoops mode in a few short days. Gopher Bandanna Guy is still decompressing from the football season, and thoroughly enjoying the opening weeks of the NBA season (Go Bucks!). I am also slowly piecing together a Big Ten hoops conference preview, complete with opinions from alums and fans of the other Big Ten schools. Look for this before the conference season starts. Don't fret though, you'll still get your final dose of Gopher football come bowl season, as we'll preview our bowl opponent, and get you a final 'What we learned' for the year, before heading into the recruit signing season.

Go Gophs, and don't sweat it - Tubby will get these guys turned around.

One last thought - hey, we've almost hit 1,000 hits on the site. Pretty cool. Think I'll have a beer. Last can of Surly Furious in the 'fridge on its way down the hatch....!